Staggered contracts and unemployment during recessions

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Adamopoulou, Effrosyni; Diez-Catalan, Luis; Villanueva, Ernesto
• 署名单位: University of Mannheim; Leibniz Association; Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW); Deutsche Bundesbank; Banco de Espana
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2025.103830
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: Wage rigidity; cyclicality; inflation; losses

摘要

We analyze the impact of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) due to collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) on wage and employment dynamics during two major recessions in Spain: the low-inflation recession of 2009, which included both short-and long-term CBAs, and the high-inflation recession of 1993, characterized by short-term CBAs. By exploiting variation in the timing of CBA renewals, we find that CBAs signed before recessions result in 1pp higher negotiated wage growth than those signed afterward. We leverage balance sheet data on firms and Social Security data on workers to document that CBA-induced DNWR accounted for 12% of job losses in 2009 due to higher wage growth, mainly among workers near the minimum wage floors. These workers experienced persistent non-employment, particularly if they were covered by long-term CBAs, and reallocation was limited. We find no real impacts in 1993, thus identifying conditions under which CBA-induced DNWR can amplify aggregate shocks.