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作者：Rebelo, Sergio; Santana, Miguel; Teles, Pedro
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Northwestern University; Bank of Canada; Banco de Portugal; Universidade Catolica Portuguesa; Universidade Catolica Portuguesa
摘要：We develop a model in which households make decisions using a dual-process framework. System 1 relies on fast, intuitive heuristics but is prone to error, while System 2 demands cognitive effort but yields more accurate decisions. Monopolistic firms can influence which system households engage through pricing. This strategic influence creates a novel source of price inertia. The model accounts for the rockets and feathers phenomenon (prices rise quickly but fall slowly), explains why firms wit...
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作者：Schaal, Edouard; Taschereau-Dumouchel, Mathieu
作者单位：Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Cornell University
摘要：We develop a quantitative theory of business cycles with coordination failures. Because of demand complementarities and increasing returns, firms seek to coordinate production and multiple equilibria arise. We use a global game approach to discipline equilibrium selection and show that the unique dynamic equilibrium exhibits multiple steady states. Coordination on high production may fail after a large transitory shock, pushing the economy in a quasi-permanent recession. Our calibrated model r...
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作者：Labrousse, Charles; France, Yann Perdereau
作者单位：Paris School of Economics
摘要：The distributive effects of carbon taxation are critical for its political acceptability and depend on both income and geographic factors. Using French administrative data, household surveys, and matched employer-employee records, we document that rural households spend 2.8 times more on fossil fuels than urban households and work in firms that emit 2.7 times more greenhouse gases. We incorporate these facts into a spatial heterogeneous-agent model with migration, housing and wealth accumulati...
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作者：Brumm, Johannes; Hussmann, Jakob
作者单位：Helmholtz Association;
摘要：We analyze the fiscal and welfare implications of the size of public debt in stochastic OLG models with distortionary taxation. The government borrowing rate is realistically sensitive to debt issuance and lower than the growth rate. The risky rate is much higher due to convenience benefits of public debt, idiosyncratic return risk, and aggregate risk. Although free-lunch deficits can reduce tax distortions, welfare-maximizing debt (WMD) is considerably lower than deficit-maximizing debt (DMD)...
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作者：Darmouni, Olivier; Siani, Kerry Y.
作者单位：Columbia University; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：How do asset purchases by central banks transmit to the real economy? Using micro-data on corporate balance sheets, we study firm behavior after the unprecedented policy support to corporate bond markets in 2020. As bond yields fell, firms issued bonds to accumulate large and persistent amounts of liquid assets. The effect on real investment was generally weak: many issuers already had access to bank liquidity and maintained equity payouts, while others used bond funds to pay back bank debt. T...
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作者：Na, Seunghoon; Yoo, Donghoon
作者单位：Purdue University System; Purdue University; Korea University
摘要：We incorporate diagnostic expectations (DE) into small open economy (SOE) models to offer novel insights into business cycles, especially in emerging countries. DE induce overreactions in domestic absorption, leading to countercyclical external balances and endogenous boom-bust cycles driven by surprises rooted in distant memory. This framework offers a cognitive alternative to permanent income shock in conventional SOE models under rational expectations (RE). Using Argentine macro-internation...
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作者：Borovickova, Katarina; Macaluso, Claudia
摘要：We investigate different wage growth rates over the life cycle for poor and rich workers, and how they relate to the frequency and quality of job-to-job transitions. Using the universe of labor market histories for Austrian workers born in 1960-62 to, we show that workers who are at the bottom of the earnings distribution have higher employer-to-employer transition rates than richer workers throughout their life. Nevertheless, they work for worse- and worse-paying firms as they age and are mor...
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作者：Braxton, J. Carter
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
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作者：Ortiz, Julio L.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Widespread adoption of just-in-time (JIT) production has reduced inventory holdings. This paper measures the share of publicly traded manufacturing firms that adopted JIT since 1980 and quantifies a trade-off created by JIT between firm profitability and vulnerability to supply disruptions. Empirically, JIT adopters experience higher sales and less volatility on average while also exhibiting heightened sensitivity to aggregate supply chain pressures. I explain these facts in a structurally est...
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作者：Jovanovic, Boyan; Rousseau, Peter L.
作者单位：New York University; Vanderbilt University
摘要：We model several ways in which AI may improve decisions, raise the productivity of firms, and raise human capital growth. Each focuses on activities that involve problem solving, with solutions being guided by signals. If AI raises the accuracy of the signals, humans will then make better decisions - individually and in groups.
