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作者：Jo, Karam; Kim, Seula
作者单位：Pennsylvania Commonwealth System of Higher Education (PCSHE); Pennsylvania State University; Pennsylvania State University - University Park
摘要：We study how frictions in learning others' technology, termed imperfect technology spillovers, impact firm innovation strategies and the aggregate economy through changes in innovation composition. We develop an endogenous growth model that generates strategic innovation decisions, where multi-product firms improve their products via own-innovation and enter new product markets through creative destruction under learning frictions. In our model, firms with technological advantages intensify ow...
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作者：Zeng, Ming; Zhao, Guihai
作者单位：University of Gothenburg; University of Gothenburg; Bank of Canada
摘要：This paper develops a noisy-information equilibrium model to study how subjective expectations shape the joint dynamics of equity and bond yields. In our framework, movements in asset yields are driven by subjective expectations of dividend and GDP growth, rather than time-varying risk premia. A dual-component dividend structure, together with belief distortions, generates key asset-pricing facts: short-term equity yields are more volatile than long-term yields because short-run dividend growt...
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作者：Villalvazo, Sergio
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：This paper studies the cross-sectional dimension of Fisher's debt-deflation mechanism that triggers endogenous Sudden Stop crises - i.e., episodes with large reversals in the current account. Analyzing microdata from Mexico, we show that this dimension has macroeconomic implications that operate via opposing effects. First, an amplifying effect by which households with high leverage fire-sale their assets during crises, increasing downward pressure on asset prices. Second, a dampening effect b...
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作者：Nguyen, Lam
摘要：Instrument validity cannot be tested in a just-identified model, and it is not clear what conclusion to draw when instrument validity is rejected in an over-identified model. In practice, researchers tend to regard instruments as valid when they lead to sensible inferences. This paper develops a proxy structural vector autoregression with imperfect confidence in instrument validity, enabling researchers to incorporate and investigate those prior beliefs alongside other identifying information ...
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作者：Ahn, Hie Joo; Rudd, Jeremy B.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：We propose an empirical framework in which shocks to worker reallocation, aggregate activity, and labor supply drive the joint dynamics of the labor market and inflation, and where reallocation shocks take two forms depending on whether they result from quits or from job losses. We find that these structural shocks, which affect the Beveridge curve, have different effects on inflation. Our model fully decomposes shifts of or along the empirical Beveridge curve in terms of the contribution of e...
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作者：Carrier, Alexandre; Mavromatis, Kostas
作者单位：European Central Bank; De Nederlandsche Bank NV; University of Amsterdam
摘要：We characterize optimal normalization policy in a framework in which agents' expectations can deviate from the rational expectations benchmark and the central bank faces cost-push shocks. When interest rate fluctuations are costless, our findings indicate that the interest rate is the primary tool for managing inflationary pressures, consistently outperforming balance sheet adjustments, regardless of the expectations formation process. However, under de-anchored expectations, an increasing rol...
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作者：Hatchondo, Juan Carlos; Martinez, Leonardo; Onder, Yasin Kursat; Roch, Francisco
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario); International Monetary Fund; Ghent University; Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
摘要：We study a sovereign default model in which the government issues CoCos (contingent convertible bonds) that stipulate a suspension of debt payments upon a sizable increase of the global risk premium (and thus, of the government's borrowing cost). We find that CoCos allow the government to smooth out the effects of risk-premium shocks on consumption, but they increase the default frequency. By suspending debt payments, CoCos imply higher debt levels and, thus, higher default probabilities after...
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作者：Rostagno, Massimo; Altavilla, Carlo; Carboni, Giacomo; Lemke, Wolfgang; Motto, Roberto; Saint-Guilhem, Arthur
作者单位：European Central Bank; European Central Bank; Bank of France
摘要：The effect of Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) and rate Forward Guidance (FG) on the yield curve is very similar with both policies exerting their maximal impact on a same spectrum of short-to-medium term maturities. Yet, we find that their impact on the predictive interest rate distribution differs. Accommodative FG prices out high interest rate trajectories, thus affecting upper percentiles; NIRP changes the market pricing of the effective lower bound on the policy rate, thus affecting l...
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作者：Ozkan, Serdar
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; University of Toronto
摘要：I show that while the rich spend more on healthcare early in life, the poor outspend them by 25% from middle to old age in the US. Furthermore, the poor seek medical care less frequently but face higher risks of extreme expenses when they do. I develop a life-cycle model, incorporating physical and preventive health capital, along with features of the US healthcare system. Preventive health capital governs the distribution of health shocks, thereby controlling life expectancy. The model sugges...
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作者：Bento, Pedro
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station
摘要：The number of women-owned businesses in the U.S. has soared over the last several decades. In 1982 less than 13 percent of businesses were majority-owned by women. By 2012 this number reached 40 percent. This and other evidence suggests that women have faced significant barriers to running businesses. Interpreted through the lens of a model of entrepreneurship, observed trends imply substantial declines in several barriers facing female entrepreneurs. Together, these changes account for almost...
