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作者：Gnocato, Nicolo
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：Does monetary policy face a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and unemployment as soaring energy prices hit the unemployed harder than the employed? Data from the euroarea Consumer Expectations Survey show that job losses not only force workers to lower their consumption but also to devote a higher proportion of it to energy. I incorporate this evidence into a tractable heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian model with labor market frictions, where energy acts as both a complementary input in...
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作者：Xu, Le; Yu, Yang; Zanetti, Francesco
作者单位：Shanghai Jiao Tong University; University of Oxford
摘要：We assemble a firm-level dataset to study the adoption and termination of suppliers over business cycles. We document that the aggregate number and rate of adoption of suppliers are procyclical. The rate of termination is acyclical at the aggregate level, and the cyclicality of termination encompasses large differences across producers. To account for these new facts, we develop a model with optimizing producers that incur separate costs for management, adoption, and termination of suppliers. ...
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作者：Holter, Hans A.; Ljungqvist, Lars; Sargent, Thomas J.; Stepanchuk, Serhiy
作者单位：University of Delaware; University of Oslo; Stockholm School of Economics; New York University; University of Southampton
摘要：We study consequences of tax reforms in an incomplete markets overlapping generations model in which male and female workers with different ability levels self-insure by acquiring a risk- free bond, time-averaging their life-cycle work schedules and career lengths, and possibly by marrying and divorcing. We study incidences of a flat-rate tax and in combination with stylized versions of a negative income tax (NIT) or an earned income tax credit (EITC). Tax reforms have diverse effects that dif...
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作者：Gelain, Paolo; Lorusso, Marco
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; University of Perugia; Newcastle University - UK
摘要：Using US micro-level data on banks, we document a negative effect of high oil prices on US banks' balance sheets, more negative for highly leveraged banks. We set and estimate a general equilibrium model with banking and oil sectors that rationalizes those findings through the financial accelerator mechanism. This mechanism amplifies the effect of oil price shocks, making them non-negligible drivers of the dynamics of US banks' intermediation activity and of the US real economy. Macroprudentia...
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作者：Moro, Alessandro; Landi, Valerio Nispi
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：We set up a multi-country New Keynesian model to study the effects of a geoeconomic fragmentation shock, modeled as an increase in the tax rates on goods, commodities, and bonds purchased from rival countries. First, we derive a closed-form solution of the model by using a symmetric calibration on two blocs of countries, and we show analytically that geoeconomic fragmentation reduces output. The effect on PPI inflation is ambiguous, depending positively on the importance of commodities in the ...
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作者：Bojeryd, Jesper; Vestman, Roine; Tyrefors, Bjorn; Kessel, Dany
作者单位：Stockholm University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Gothenburg; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)
摘要：Empirical studies have estimated a large range of consumption responses to changes in housing prices. Using a quasi-experiment, we estimate a shock of-19.4 percent to single-family house prices in the area surrounding an airport in Stockholm after its operations were unexpectedly continued as a result of political bargaining behind closed doors. Using a household data set with information on the locations of primary residences relative to the airport, we find a short-run elasticity with respec...
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作者：Adam, Klaus; Kuang, Pei; Xie, Shihan
作者单位：University of London; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Macau; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：We observe a rich set of public information signals available to participants in the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and decompose individual forecast revisions into those due to public information and a remainder due to residual information. We find that SPF forecasters overreact to residual information at almost all forecast horizons and for almost all forecast variables. In addition, forecasts are overly anchored to prior beliefs for all variables at all forecast horizons. We show ...
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作者：Dong, Ding; Liu, Zheng; Wang, Pengfei
作者单位：Hong Kong Baptist University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：Firm-level evidence suggests that turbulence that reshuffles firms' productivity rankings rises sharply in recessions. An increase in turbulence reallocates labor and capital from high-to low-productivity firms, reducing aggregate TFP and the stock market value of firms. A real business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and financial frictions can generate the observed macroeconomic and reallocation effects of turbulence. In the model, increased turbulence makes high-productivity firms less...
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作者：Adam, Klaus; Pfaeuti, Oliver; Reinelt, Timo
作者单位：University of Mannheim; University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
摘要：U.S. households' housing price expectations deviate systematically from full-information rational expectations: (i) expectations are updated on average too sluggishly, (ii) expectations initially underreact but subsequently overreact to housing price changes, and (iii) households are overly optimistic (pessimistic) about housing price growth when the price-to-rent ratio is high (low). We show that weak forms of housing price growth extrapolation allow to simultaneously replicate the behavior o...
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作者：Esquivel, Carlos
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：I study how, in the presence of default risk, the Dutch disease amplifies an inefficiency in the sectoral allocation of capital. In a sovereign default model with commodities and production of traded and non-traded goods, default incentives increase when more capital is allocated to non-traded production. Households do not internalize this, giving rise to an inefficiently large non-traded sector. Commodity windfalls amplify this inefficiency through the classic Dutch disease mechanism. I chara...
