State-level economic policy uncertainty

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Baker, Scott R.; Davis, Steven J.; Levy, Jeffrey A.
• 署名单位: Northwestern University; University of Chicago; University of Chicago; University of Chicago
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.08.004
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 81-99
• 关键词: Policy uncertainty; Elections and uncertainty; State-level economic performance; unemployment; Housing starts; Home prices; Spatial spillovers; COVID-19 pandemic

摘要

We quantify and study state-level economic policy uncertainty. Tapping digital archives for nearly 3500 local newspapers, we construct three monthly indexes for each state: one that captures state and local sources of policy uncertainty (EPU - S), one that captures national and international sources (EPU - N), and a composite index that captures both. EPU - S rises around gubernatorial elections and own-state episodes like the California electricity crisis of 20 0 0-01 and the Kansas tax experiment of 2012. EPU - N rises around presiden-tial elections and in response to 9-11, Gulf Wars I and II, the 2011 debt-ceiling crisis, the 2012 fiscal cliff episode, and federal government shutdowns. Close elections elevate pol-icy uncertainty much more than the average election. VAR models fit to pre-COVID data imply that upward shocks to own-state EPU foreshadow weaker economic performance in the state, as do upward EPU shocks in contiguous states. The COVID-19 pandemic drove huge increases in policy uncertainty and unemployment, more so in states with stricter government-mandated lockdowns.(c) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ )