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作者：Jiang, Zhengyang
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：A B S T R A C T A stronger US fiscal condition predicts a higher excess return on the dollar against foreign currencies in the following year, and more so against foreign currencies with higher dollar betas. A stronger foreign fiscal condition does not have such forecasting power. These findings can be explained by the unique role the US government debt plays as reserve assets. When the US fiscal condition deteriorates, financial intermediaries' reserve constraint tightens and triggers a fligh...
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作者：Chahrour, Ryan; Jurado, Kyle
作者单位：Boston College; Duke University
摘要：Agents have foresight when they receive information about a random process above and beyond the information contained in its current and past history. In this paper, we propose an information-theoretic measure of the quantity of foresight in an information structure, and show how to separate informational assumptions about foresight from physical assumptions about the dynamics of the processes itself. We then develop a theory of endogenous foresight in which the type of foresight is chosen opt...
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作者：Hennessy, Christopher A.; Livdan, Dmitry
作者单位：University of London; London Business School; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：This paper analyses extrapolation and inference using tax experiments in dynamic economies when shock processes are latent regime-shifting Markov chains. Belief revisions result in severe parameter drift: Response signs and magnitudes vary widely over time despite ideal exogeneity. Even with linear causal effects, shock responses are non-linear, preventing direct extrapolation. Analytical formulae are derived for extrapolating responses or inferring causal parameters. Extrapolation and inferen...
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作者：Bond, Steve; Hashemi, Arshia; Kaplan, Greg; Zoch, Piotr
作者单位：University of Oxford; University of Chicago; University of Warsaw
摘要：The ratio estimator of the markup is the ratio of the output elasticity for a flexible input to that input's cost share in total revenue. We highlight identification and estimation issues pertaining to this ratio estimator, when firm-level output prices are not observed. If the revenue elasticity for a flexible input is used in place of the output elasticity, then profit maximization implies that the ratio estimator is identically equal to one, and thus is uninformative about markups. Concerni...
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作者：Baeriswyl, Romain; My, Kene Boun; Cornand, Camille
作者单位：Swiss National Bank (SNB); Universites de Strasbourg Etablissements Associes; Universite de Strasbourg; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); Universite de Lorraine; INRAE; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS); CNRS - Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences (INSHS); Ecole Normale Superieure de Lyon (ENS de LYON); Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1; Universite Jean Monnet; Universite Lyon 2
摘要：Central banks' disclosures, such as forward guidance, have a weaker effect on the economy in reality than that predicted in theoretical models. In a beauty contest with information acquisition, we show that strategic complementarities give rise to a double overreaction to public disclosures by increasing agents' equilibrium level of attention, which, in turn, increases the weight assigned to the disclosures in agents' equilibrium action. A laboratory experiment provides evidence that the effec...
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作者：Hauk, Esther; Lanteri, Andrea; Marcet, Albert
作者单位：Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC); CSIC - Institut d'Analisi Economica (IAE); Autonomous University of Barcelona; Barcelona School of Economics; Autonomous University of Barcelona; Duke University; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Duke University; ICREA; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Barcelona School of Economics; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University
摘要：Most available results on optimal decisions under partial information are derived under separation. But this principle does not always hold. We derive a non-standard first order condition of optimality from first principles when signal extraction and optimal policy must be jointly determined. This allows us to solve a model of optimal fiscal policy where separation does not apply. Tax smoothing prevails in normal times, but taxes respond strongly in recessions. This non-linearity arises becaus...
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作者：Pei, Yun; Xie, Zoe
作者单位：State University of New York (SUNY) System; University at Buffalo, SUNY; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Atlanta
摘要：During recessions, the U.S. government substantially increases the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits through multiple extensions. Benefit extensions increase UI coverage and lead to higher average consumption of unemployed workers, but the expectation of an extension may reduce unemployed worker's job search incentives and lead to higher future unemployment. We show that benefit extensions in recessions arise naturally when the government forgoes prior commitment and makes discr...
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作者：Gourio, Francois
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
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作者：Rannenberg, Ansgar
作者单位：European Central Bank; National Bank of Belgium
摘要：I examine the effect of fiscal policy at the zero lower bound when households have preferences over safe assets (POSA) parameterized consistent with microeconomic evidence on intertemporal choices and the macroeconomic elasticity between US government debt supply and bond yields. POSA loosen the link between household consumption and permanent-income, and imply a wealth effect from government bonds. Therefore, the multiplier of a permanent expenditure change increases. I show that these conclu...
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作者：Bonfiglioli, Alessandra; Crino, Rosario; Gancia, Gino
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Catholic University of the Sacred Heart; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：The concentration of US imports is studied from transaction-level data. Concentration has fallen in the typical industry, while it is stable by industry-origin. Falling concentration is driven by the extensive margin: the number of exporting firms has grown, and the num -ber of exported products has fallen relatively more for top firms. Instead, average revenue per product of top firms has increased. Top firms are converging at the industry level, but diverging within country. Finally, rising ...
