The inexorable recoveries of unemployment

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Hall, Robert E.; Kudlyak, Marianna
• 署名单位: Stanford University; Stanford University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.06.003
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 15-25
• 关键词: Business cycle; RECOVERY; unemployment; recession

摘要

Unemployment recoveries in the US have been inexorable. In the aftermath of a reces-sion, unless another crisis intervenes, unemployment continues to glide down. Between 1948 and 2019, the annual reduction in the unemployment rate during cyclical recoveries was distributed around 0.1 log points per year. The economy seems to have an irresistible force toward restoring full employment. Occasionally, unemployment rises rapidly during an economic crisis, while most of the time, unemployment declines slowly and smoothly at a near-constant proportional rate. Similar properties hold for other measures of the US unemployment rate and for unemployment in emerging and advanced countries. (c) 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.