Will the AI revolution cause a great divergence? *

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Alonso, Cristian; Berg, Andrew; Kothari, Siddharth; Papageorgiou, Chris; Rehman, Sidra
• 署名单位: International Monetary Fund
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.01.004
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 18-37
• 关键词: automation; robots; divergence; Development; technological change

摘要

Implications of a new wave of technological change that substitutes pervasively for labor are examined with particular focus on developing countries. While the model considered is minimalist by design, the resulting conclusions are powerful: improvements in the productivity of robots drive divergence, as advanced countries differentially benefit from their initially higher robot intensity, driven by their endogenously higher wages and stock of complementary traditional capital. Capital-if internationally mobile-is pulled uphill, resulting in a transitional GDP decline in the developing country. When robots substitute only for unskilled labor, the terms of trade, and hence GDP, may decline permanently. (c) 2022 International Monetary Fund. Published by Elsevier B.V.