Are IMF rescue packages effective? A synthetic control analysis of macroeconomic crises *

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Kuruc, Kevin
• 署名单位: University of Oklahoma System; University of Oklahoma - Norman
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.02.002
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 38-53
• 关键词: imf; financial crises; Synthetic controls; Business cycle policy

摘要

Whether, and to what degree, IMF lending succeeds in stabilizing economies remains an open question. Here, a synthetic control analysis of macroeconomic crises with IMF inter-vention is performed-leveraging the existence of similar crises without intervention-that finds positive recovery effects. In the first five years following a crisis, output differences are, on average, nearly two percent of GDP per year. Consistent with a liquidity channel, effects are hum p-shaped and fade in the medium run. An analysis of historical IMF fore-casts provides evidence against selection as a spurious driver of this result, suggesting that these positive estimates are indeed causal.(c) 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.