The case for a positive euro area inflation target: Evidence from france, germany and italy

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Adam, Klaus; Gautier, Erwan; Santoro, Sergio; Weber, Henning
• 署名单位: University of Mannheim; European Central Bank; Bank of France; Deutsche Bundesbank; University of Mannheim
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.09.002
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: 140-153
• 关键词: Optimal inflation target; Micro price trends; welfare

摘要

Using micro price data underlying the consumer price index, we estimate relative price trends over the product life cycle in France, Germany and Italy. Minimizing the welfare consequences of relative price distortions in the presence of these trends requires target-ing a significantly positive inflation rate: the steady-state inflation rate jointly maximizing welfare in all three countries ranges between 1.1%-1.7%. The welfare costs of targeting an inflation rate of zero, as suggested by monetary models ignoring relative price trends, or of targeting 4% amount to several percentage points of consumption.(c) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )