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作者：Huo, Zhen; Pedroni, Marcelo
作者单位：Yale University; University of Amsterdam
摘要：With dispersed information, how much can agents learn from past endogenous aggregates such as prices or output? In a rational-expectations equilibrium, if general equilibrium effects are strong enough, aggregates no longer perfectly reveal underlying fundamen-tals. In this confounding regime, the effects of informational frictions are persistent over time, and the aggregate outcome displays an initial under-reaction followed by a delayed over-reaction relative to its perfect-information counte...
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作者：Caliendo, Lorenzo
作者单位：Yale University
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作者：Luo, Shaowen; Villar, Daniel
作者单位：Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Using disaggregated industry-level data, this paper empirically evaluates predictions for the cross-sectional price change distribution made by input-output models with sticky prices. The response of prices to shocks is found to be consistent with the price sen-sitivities predicted by the input-output model. Moreover, moments of the sectoral price change distribution vary over time in response to the evolution of the network structure. Finally, through a quantitative analysis, demand and suppl...
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作者：Zhang, Jing
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Chicago
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作者：Goraya, Sampreet Singh
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：Informal institutions play an important role in resource allocation across entrepreneurs in developing countries. I focus on the caste system in India and document three stylized facts. First, entrepreneurs of historically disadvantaged castes have a higher average rev-enue product of capital, arpk, relative to high-caste enterprises. Second, cross-caste differ-ences in arpk are driven by small enterprises. Third, the majority of these differences are concentrated in financially underdeveloped...
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作者：Miranda-Pinto, Jorge; Silva, Alvaro; Young, Eric R.
作者单位：Central Bank of Chile; University of Queensland; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; University of Virginia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：We study the network origins of business cycle asymmetries using cross-country and administrative firm-level data. At the country level, we document that countries with a larger number of non-zero intersectoral linkages (denser networks) display a more negatively skewed cyclical component of output. At the firm level, we find that firms with a larger number of suppliers and customers (degrees) display a more negatively-skewed distribution of their output growth. To rationalize these findings, ...
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作者：Blanchet, Thomas; Martinez-Toledano, Clara
作者单位：Paris School of Economics; Imperial College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：This paper studies the interaction between the long-term dynamics of aggregate house-hold wealth and the wealth distribution in Europe and the United States. We do so by building the first Distributional Wealth Accounts for Europe, including households' assets, liabilities, investment flows, and the wealth distribution for most European countries from 1970-2020. We find that although aggregate household wealth to income ratios have fol-lowed a similar increasing pattern in both Europe and the ...
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作者：Curti, Filippo; Kazinnik, Sophia
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：When the Fed Chair speaks, investors not only listen, but also watch. To demonstrate this phenomenon, we apply facial recognition analysis to FOMC press conference videos and quantify one of the most important aspects of nonverbal communication-facial expressions. Using minute-level data, we align our nonverbal communication measure with a set of financial assets to estimate the impact of the Fed Chairs' facial expressions on investor expectations. We find that investors adversely react to neg...
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作者：Melcangi, Davide; Turen, Javier
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile
摘要：How is firm creation affected by imperfect information? Our model of rational inattention generates inefficient entry and labor misallocation, because startups make error-prone decisions. Learning decisions of prospective entrepreneurs alter the effects of lump-sum transfers to startups: the total employment gain is amplified due to an unintended increase in inefficient entry, most entrants hire fewer workers, and misallocation goes up. The transfer changes the learning incentives and makes ev...
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作者：Harding, Martin; Linde, Jesper; Trabandt, Mathias
作者单位：Bank of Canada; International Monetary Fund; University of Gothenburg; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Goethe University Frankfurt; Leibniz Association; Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
摘要：We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. The nonlinear Phillips curve in our model arises due to a quasi-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by firms. Our model can jointly account for the modest decline in inflation during the Great Recession and the surge in inflation during the post-COVID period. Because our model implies a stronger transmission ...
