The inflationary effects of sectoral reallocation

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Ferrante, Francesco; Graves, Sebastian; Iacoviello, Matteo
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2023.03.003
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 64-81
• 关键词: Sectoral reallocation; inflation; Input-output models; Moment-matching exercise

摘要

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to an unprecedented shift of consumption from services to goods. We study this demand reallocation in a multi-sector model featuring sticky prices, input-output linkages, and labor reallocation costs. Reallocation costs hamper the increase in the supply of goods, causing inflationary pressures. These pressures are amplified by the fact that goods prices are more flexible than services prices. We estimate the model allowing for demand reallocation, sectoral productivity, and aggregate labor supply shocks. The demand reallocation shock explains a large portion of the rise in U.S. inflation in the aftermath of the pandemic. (c) 2023 Published by Elsevier B.V.