A new approach to assess inflation expectations anchoring using strategic surveys

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Armantier, Olivier; Sbordone, Argia; Topa, Giorgio; van der Klaauw, Wilbert; Williams, John C.
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.05.002
• 发表日期: 2022
• 页码: S82-S101
• 关键词: inflation; expectations; Anchoring; Surveys; experiments

摘要

We propose a new approach to assess inflation expectations anchoring using strategic surveys. Namely, we measure households' revisions in long-run inflation expectations after they are presented with different economic scenarios. This approach has a causal interpretation and maps directly into policy makers concerns. We implement the method in the summer of 2019 and the spring-summer of 2021 when the anchoring of long-run inflation expectations was questioned. We find that the risk of un-anchoring was reasonably low in both periods, and that long-run inflation expectations were essentially as well anchored in August 2021 as in July 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic. (c) 2022 Published by Elsevier B.V.