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作者：Carriero, Andrea; Marcellino, Massimiliano; Tornese, Tommaso
作者单位：University of London; Queen Mary University London; Bocconi University
摘要：The proposed blended approach combines identification via heteroskedasticity with sign/ narrative restrictions, and instrumental variables. Since heteroskedasticity can point identify shocks, its use results in a sharp reduction of the potentially large identified sets stemming from other approaches. Conversely, sign/narrative restrictions or instrumental variables offer natural solutions to the labeling problem and can help when conditions for point identification through heteroskedasticity a...
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作者：Lopez-Salido, David; Loria, Francesca
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Inflation at risk (IaR) refers to the tails of the distribution of inflation over a forecast horizon. We study IaR using quantile regressions in a panel of OECD countries for a sample that includes the Global Financial Crisis and the rise in inflation during the Covid-19 pandemic. First, we find that even though recently the conditional mean of inflation has been low and stable, there was ample variability in the tails. Second, financial conditions have a nonlinear effect on the predictive inf...
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作者：Adam, Klaus
作者单位：University of London; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
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作者：Chan, Jenny; Diz, Sebastian; Kanngiesser, Derrick
作者单位：Bank of England
摘要：How does household heterogeneity affect the transmission of an energy price shock? What are the implications for monetary policy? We develop a small, open-economy TANK model that features labor and an energy import good as complementary production inputs (Gas-TANK). Given such complementarities, higher energy prices reduce the labor share of total income. Due to borrowing constraints, this translates into a drop in aggregate demand. Higher price flexibility insures firm profits from energy pri...
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作者：Knotek II, Edward S.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：Macroeconomic models often generate nominal price rigidity via menu costs. In scanner databases, (1) price points, embodied in nine-ending prices, account for two-thirds of prices; (2) at the conclusion of sales, post-sale prices return to their pre-sale levels more than three-fourths of the time; and (3) such memory around sales is stronger if the pre-sale price was a price point. Extending a canonical menu cost model to allow for price points, I estimate an incentive to set nine-ending price...
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作者：Adam, Klaus
作者单位：University of London; University College London; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
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作者：Gemmi, Luca
作者单位：University of Lausanne; University of Lausanne
摘要：Is excessive risk -taking in credit cycles driven by incentives or biased beliefs? I propose a framework suggesting that the two are actually related and, specifically, that procyclical overoptimism can arise rationally from risk -taking incentives. I show that when firms and banks have a limited liability payoff structure, they have lower incentives to pay attention to the aggregate conditions that generate risk. This leads to systematic underestimation of the accumulation of risk during econ...
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作者：Luduvice, Andre Victor Doherty
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：I develop a heterogeneous agents overlapping generations model to assess the welfare effects of substituting the US income security system with a UBI policy. I study two counterfactual exercises: an expenditure-neutral reform and a large, policy-oriented UBI reform with a transfer equivalent to $1000 monthly, both financed by changes in the consumption tax. The first exercise has a moderate fiscal impact, induces increases in the aggregate output and employment, and reduces earnings and wealth...
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作者：Jain, Monica; Kostyshyna, Olena; Zhang, Xu
作者单位：Bank of Canada; Bank of Canada
摘要：Using household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations over 2014Q4- 2023Q2, we study wage growth expectations and their link with inflation expectations. We document novel facts about wage growth expectations and the uncertainty around them. Households associate higher wage growth with a stronger economy. The link between wage and inflation expectations is weak, but stronger during the high-inflation period, in tighter labour markets, among new hires, for workers with abo...
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作者：Bilbiie, Florin O.; Monacelli, Tommaso; Perotti, Roberto
作者单位：University of Cambridge; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Bocconi University; Bocconi University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Stabilization and redistribution are intertwined in a model with heterogeneity, imperfect insurance, and nominal rigidity-making fiscal and monetary policy inextricably linked for aggregate-demand management. Movements in inequality induced by fiscal transfers make the flexible-price equilibrium suboptimal, thus triggering a stabilization vs redistribution tradeoff. Likewise, changes in government spending that are associated with changes in the distribution of taxes (progressive vs. regressiv...
