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作者：Zohar, Osnat
作者单位：Bank of Israel
摘要：The empirical literature often uses disagreement (dispersion in forecasts) as a proxy for uncertainty, yet disagreement and uncertainty behave differently throughout the business cycle. The difference is especially salient in non-crisis periods, in which measures of disagreement are positively correlated with growth, while measures of uncertainty are negatively correlated with it. I explain this finding using a noisy information model with endogenous learning. In the model, agents observe nois...
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作者：Cao, Linyi; Jiang, Helu; Li, Guangwei; Zhu, Lijun
作者单位：Shanghai University of Finance & Economics; ShanghaiTech University; Peking University
摘要：With quantity -based innovation targets and subsidy programs launched since the mid -2000s, China has seen a patent surge, accounting for 46% of the world's total patent applications in 2020; however, the overall patent quality has been declining after 2008. This paper develops a Schumpeterian growth model featuring innovating firms' quantity-quality trade-off between radical and incremental innovations, and decomposes subsidies' aggregate impact into quantity and quality channels. We calibrat...
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作者：Romer, Christina D.; Romer, David H.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：Why are some attempts at disinflation successful and others failures? We investigate this question in the context of the Federal Reserve's attempts at disinflation since World War II. Our central finding is that a fundamental determinant of success was the strength of the Federal Reserve's commitment to disinflation at the start of its attempts. In episodes where its commitment was high, there were significant declines in inflation that were often long-lasting, while in ones where its commitme...
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作者：Binder, Carola Conces; Campbell, Jeffrey R.; Ryngaert, Jane M.
作者单位：University of Texas System; University of Texas Austin; Tilburg University; University of Notre Dame
摘要：We use high frequency identification methods to study the response of consumer inflation expectations to many different types of events using data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Survey of Consumer Expectations. We identify the response of expectations to a large set of shocks, including FOMC meetings and macroeconomic data releases. We find that macroeconomic news and FOMC meetings with a press conference or rate cuts jointly move expectations.
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作者：Schilling, Linda; Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus; Uhlig, Harald
作者单位：Washington University (WUSTL); Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; University of Pennsylvania; University of Chicago
摘要：This paper shows the existence of a central bank trilemma. When a central bank is involved in financial intermediation, either directly through a central bank digital currency (CBDC) or indirectly through other policy instruments, it can only achieve two of three objectives: a socially efficient allocation, financial stability (i.e., absence of runs), and price stability. In particular, a commitment to price stability can cause a run on the central bank. Implementation of the socially optimal ...
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作者：Babiak, Mykola; Kozhan, Roman
作者单位：Lancaster University; University of Warwick
摘要：We examine how parameter learning amplifies the impact of macroeconomic shocks on equity prices and quantities in a standard production economy where a representative agent has Epstein-Zin preferences. An investor observes technology shocks that follow a regime-switching process but does not know the underlying model parameters governing the short -term and long-run perspectives of economic growth. We show that rational belief updating endogenously generates long-run risks that help explain va...
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作者：Dyrda, Sebastian; Hong, Guangbin; Steinberg, Joseph B.
作者单位：University of Toronto
摘要：What is the optimal design of the international corporate tax system? We revisit this classic question in a multi-country general equilibrium model that incorporates three key features of the modern globalized economy: multinational production; intangible capital; and international profit shifting. Our model's competitive equilibrium is inefficient due to an externality that arises from international spillovers in intangible investment. In the absence of profit shifting, there is little, if an...
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作者：Perri, Fabrizio
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
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作者：Hatzius, Jan
摘要：We discuss the lessons that economic forecasters have learned about inflation since the Covid shock. First, physical shortages-e.g., in the auto sector-can push up goods prices much more dramatically than most forecasters expected following several decades near price stability. Second, imbalances in the rental housing market can sharply increase inflation and keep it high, especially in economies such as the US where rents are used to impute owner-occupied housing costs. Third, the jobs-worker...
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作者：Chang, Jin-Wook; Chuan, Grace
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Columbia University
摘要：This paper investigates contagion in financial networks through collateralized debt and its effects on social welfare. Our model incorporates contagion through both counterparty debt exposures and endogenous collateral asset pricing. We find that collateral mitigates counterparty exposures and reduces social inefficiency when faced with negative shocks, but not always. We also show the importance of the interaction between the level of collateral and network structure as contagion can change d...
