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作者：Bayer, Christian; Kriwoluzky, Alexander; Mueller, Gernot J.; Seyrich, Fabian
作者单位：University of Bonn; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Free University of Berlin; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen
摘要：How does a monetary union alter the impact of business cycle shocks at the household level? We develop a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model of two countries (HANK(2)) and show in closed form that a monetary union shifts the adjustment to a shock horizontally across countries, within the brackets of the union-wide wealth distribution, rather than vertically, that is, across the brackets of the union-wide wealth distribution. Calibrating the model to the euro area reveals that a monetary un...
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作者：Dupraz, Stephane; Le Bihan, Herve; Matheron, Julien
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of France; European Central Bank; Bank of France; Paris School of Economics
摘要：How effective are forward -guidance and make-up strategies? Standard models find them extremely effective, but by assuming households' inflation expectations respond much more strongly than in the data. Models where households discount the future find them much less effective and match the small reaction of inflation expectations, but not the actual large reaction of asset prices. We build a model that rationalizes both. Households cognitively discount the future, but more forward -looking fin...
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作者：Bassetto, Marco; Hall, Jason
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis
摘要：The relative desirability of a centralized or decentralized fiscal authority depends on both the borrowing externality identified in Berriel et al. and the informational cost of centralizing spending decisions. It is not ex-ante obvious which force dominates as the number of countries grows, but the institutional design of the European system suggests that the externality dominates in practice. We compare a fully centralized solution with a threshold rule akin to the deficit limits of the Maas...
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作者：Bradley, Jake; Mann, Lukas
作者单位：University of Nottingham; Princeton University
摘要：We study a general equilibrium model of the labor market in which agents slowly learn about their suitability for jobs. Our model reproduces desirable features of the data, many of which standard models fail to replicate. We explore how, in such an environment, asymmetric information can lead to substantial misallocation. We calibrate our model to US data and quantify the welfare loss arising from misallocation due to informational frictions. The tractability of the model allows us to explore ...
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作者：Dinopoulos, Elias; Heins, Gunnar; Unel, Bulent
作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Florida; Louisiana State University System; Louisiana State University
摘要：Motivated by the 2018-19 global tariff war, we develop a multi-country trade model with occupational choice, heterogeneous firms, and unemployment. The model features a complete tariff pass-through and positive optimal tariffs addressing product and labor-market distortions. The quantitative analysis of the model with four countries/regions shows that raising tariffs unilaterally by a country increases welfare but also raises unemployment and top incomes that country, whereas having the opposi...
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作者：Macnamara, Patrick; Pidkuyko, Myroslav; Rossi, Raffaele
作者单位：University of Manchester; Banco de Espana; University of Birmingham
摘要：We estimate a life -cycle model of savings, labor productivity and entrepreneurs to measure the long -run response of income to marginal tax rate cuts in the US. Long -run tax elasticities of income are largest for the richest 1% but are also positive and substantial for other income groups. In equilibrium, entrepreneurs obtain higher returns on wealth. This increases the investment response of rich, high -return entrepreneurs, amplifying their income elasticity to tax cuts. This leads to a re...
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作者：Andreasen, Martin M.; Caggiano, Giovanni; Castelnuovo, Efrem; Pellegrino, Giovanni
作者单位：Aarhus University; CREATES; Danish Finance Institute; University of Padua; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Monash University
摘要：We employ a nonlinear vector autoregression and a non-recursive identification strategy to show that an equal-sized uncertainty shock generates a larger contraction in real activity when growth is low (as in recessions) than when growth is high (as in expansions). An estimated New Keynesian model with recursive preferences replicates these state-contingent responses when approximated to third order around its risky steady state due to a stronger upward nominal pricing bias in recessions than i...
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作者：Basu, Susanto
作者单位：Boston College; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This discussion comments on the ambitious paper, Understanding the International Rise and Fall of Inflation Since 2020, by Mai Chi Dao, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Daniel Leigh, and Prachi Mishra. The strengths of the DGLM paper are manifest. There is much to learn from it, both about the commonalities of the inflation experiences of this large group of important countries and their differences, and I draw some lessons and policy implications. I will suggest that one could have learned even mor...
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作者：Dao, Mai Chi; Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier; Leigh, Daniel; Mishra, Prachi
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：This paper analyzes inflation dynamics in 21 advanced and emerging market economies since 2020. We decompose inflation into core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate, and headline shocks-deviations of headline inflation from core. Headline shocks occurred largely on account of energy price changes, although food price changes and indicators of supply chain problems also played a role. We explain the evolution of core inflation with two factors: the strength of macroecono...
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作者：Pallotti, Filippo; Paz-Pardo, Gonzalo; Slacalek, Jiri; Tristani, Oreste; Violante, Giovanni L.
作者单位：University of London; University College London; European Central Bank; Princeton University; IZA Institute Labor Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We measure the heterogeneous first-order welfare effects of the recent inflation surge across households in the euro area. A simple framework illustrating the numerous transmission channels of surprise inflation to household welfare guides our empirical exercise. By combining micro data and aggregate time series, we conclude that: (i) country-level average welfare costs - expressed as a share of triennial income - were sizable and heterogeneous: around 3% in France and Spain, 7% in Germany, an...
