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作者：Altavilla, Carlo; Bussiere, Matthieu; Gali, Jordi; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Gurkaynak, Refet S.; Rey, Helene
作者单位：European Central Bank; European Central Bank; Bank of France; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; Ihsan Dogramaci Bilkent University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; London Business School
摘要：European macroeconomies remain under-researched. There are compelling reasons for this to change. European issues pose significant economic challenges, are theoretically intriguing, and provide ample data for empirical studies. In this call to action, we outline a research program focused on monetary policy questions relevant for Europe.
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作者：Kuncl, Martin; Ueberfeldt, Alexander
作者单位：Bank of Canada
摘要：Monetary easing redistributes from savers, some of whom are retired and not adjusting labor supply, to borrowers who reduce their labor supply. This results in persistently lower aggregate labor and output. Hence the interaction of labor supply heterogeneity with heterogeneity in net nominal positions of households creates a monetary policy trade -off whereby short-term economic stimulus is followed by lower output over the medium term. The policy trade -off is stronger in economies with more ...
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作者：Ghaderi, Mohammad; Kilic, Mete; Seo, Sang Byung
作者单位：University of Kansas; University of Southern California; University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：Investors' learning can drastically alter the dynamics of the variance risk premium: it no longer increases as economic conditions deteriorate but exhibits a highly nonlinear pattern, occasionally even turning negative. We demonstrate this intuition using a model where investors rationally form their belief about the hidden economic state. When the badstate becomes probable, investors start liking high future variance because it overwhelmingly correlates with lower marginal utility. This mecha...
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作者：Akcigit, Ufuk; Ates, Sina T.; Lerner, Josh; Townsend, Richard R.; Zhestkova, Yulia
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Harvard University; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：The treatment of foreign investors is a contentious topic in U.S. entrepreneurship policy. We model a setting where foreign corporate investments in Silicon Valley may allow U.S. entrepreneurs to pursue technologies that they could not otherwise, but may also lead to knowledge spillovers. We show that despite the benefits from such inbound investments for U.S. firms, it may be optimal for the U.S. government to raise their costs to deter these investments. Using as comprehensive as possible a ...
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作者：Aidala, Felix; Armantier, Olivier; Topa, Giorgio; van Der Klaauw, Wilbert
作者单位：Duke University; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：In this note we provide comments on the paper ''Partisan Expectations and COVID Era Inflation'' (2024) by Binder, Kamdar, and Ryngaert (BKR). We complement BKR's analysis by bringing to bear new evidence from the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations. Our analysis confirms BKR's results of a relationship between political affiliation and inflation expectations. However, we find no clear evidence that Republicans' inflation expectations became unanchored during the Covid-19 era. We als...
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作者：Maekinen, Taneli; Palazzo, Francesco
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy; European Central Bank
摘要：Asymmetric information about both private valuations of assets and their quality gives rise to uncertainty over sellers' motives of trade, allowing high-valuation holders of low-quality assets to engage in speculative trades that involve no allocative gains. When sellers compete to find buyers, such speculative behaviour not only dilutes the average quality of assets but also creates a welfare-detrimental congestion externality that lengthens the time on market for each individual seller. A ma...
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作者：Choi, Sangyup; Willems, Tim; Yoo, Seung Yong
作者单位：Yonsei University; Bank of England; Yale University
摘要：Combining industry-level data on output and prices with novel monetary policy shock estimates for 102 countries, we analyze how the effects of monetary policy vary with industry characteristics. Next to being interesting in their own right, our findings are informative on the importance of various transmission mechanisms, as they are thought to vary systematically with the included characteristics. Results suggest that monetary policy has greater output effects in industries featuring assets t...
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作者：Gazzani, Andrea; Venditti, Fabrizio; Veronese, Giovanni
作者单位：European Central Bank; Bank of Italy
摘要：Oil prices contain information on global shocks of key relevance for monetary policy decisions. We propose a novel approach to identify these shocks at the daily frequency in a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR). Our method is devised to be used in real time to interpret the developments in the oil market and their implications for the macroeconomy, circumventing the problem of publication lags that plagues monthly data used in workhorse SVAR models. It proves particularly valuable for mo...
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作者：Bianchi, sovereign Javier; Sosa-Padilla, Cesar
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; University of Notre Dame; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper explores the role of restrictions on the use of international reserves as economic sanctions. We develop a simple model of the strategic game between a sanctioning (creditor) country and a sanctioned (debtor) country. We characterize how the sanctioning country should impose restrictions optimally, internalizing the geopolitical benefits and the potential losses of a default by the sanctioned country. A calibrated version of the model can account for the sequence of events leading t...
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作者：Ferreira, Thiago R. T.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：I document business cycle properties of the cross-sectional distributions of U.S. stock returns and credit spreads. The skewness of returns of financial firms (SRF) best predicts economic activity, while being a barometer for the lending channel-credit supply shifts beyond what is explained by borrowers' conditions. SRF also predict firm-level investment beyond firms' balance sheets. Using a structural model, I estimate that while SRF is highly cyclical, shocks to the cross-sectional skewness ...
