How do people view wage and price inflation?

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jain, Monica; Kostyshyna, Olena; Zhang, Xu
• 署名单位: Bank of Canada; Bank of Canada
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.01.005
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Wage expectations; Inflation expectations; uncertainty; Consumer surveys; Wage-price spiral

摘要

Using household-level data from the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations over 2014Q4- 2023Q2, we study wage growth expectations and their link with inflation expectations. We document novel facts about wage growth expectations and the uncertainty around them. Households associate higher wage growth with a stronger economy. The link between wage and inflation expectations is weak, but stronger during the high-inflation period, in tighter labour markets, among new hires, for workers with above-inflation wage gains or higher levels of education or income. Uncertainty about wage gains is strongly positively linked to uncertainty about expected inflation, particularly during the high-inflation period.