The macroeconomic effects of universal basic income programs

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Luduvice, Andre Victor Doherty
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0304-3932
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2024.103615
• 发表日期: 2024
• 关键词: Universal basic income; social insurance; overlapping generations; labor supply

摘要

I develop a heterogeneous agents overlapping generations model to assess the welfare effects of substituting the US income security system with a UBI policy. I study two counterfactual exercises: an expenditure-neutral reform and a large, policy-oriented UBI reform with a transfer equivalent to $1000 monthly, both financed by changes in the consumption tax. The first exercise has a moderate fiscal impact, induces increases in the aggregate output and employment, and reduces earnings and wealth inequality. The second exercise requires a large increase in the consumption tax rate, decreases employment and output, and increases earnings inequality, which moves sideways for wealth. In both cases, disposable income and consumption are more equally distributed, with less accrual at the top. The two economies generate positive welfare gains, with those for the generous UBI economy being larger.