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作者：Draeger, Lena; Lamla, Michael J.; Pfajfar, Damjan
作者单位：Leibniz University Hannover; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Duisburg Essen; Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors
摘要：Using a randomized control trial on German consumers we show that information about rising inflation increases inflation expectations. This initial increase in expectations can be mitigated by providing forecasts of inflation. Information about (future) inflation affects the whole term structure of inflation expectations, where the effects are smaller for longer-run expectations. This information also causes changes in consumption and savings decisions. In subsequent months- when consumers rea...
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作者：Jarocinski, Marek
作者单位：European Central Bank
摘要：Financial market responses to Fed monetary policy announcements are often very small, but sometimes very large and the mix of news contained in these announcements varies over time. I exploit these features of the data to estimate different types of Fed policy shocks. The resulting shocks can be naturally labeled as standard monetary policy, Odyssean forward guidance, large scale asset purchases and Delphic forward guidance. They affect risk -free interest rates, stock prices and the dollar on...
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作者：Billi, Roberto; Gali, Jordi; Nakov, Anton
作者单位：Sveriges Riksbank; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); Pompeu Fabra University; Barcelona School of Economics; European Central Bank
摘要：We study the optimal monetary policy problem in a New Keynesian economy with a zero bound (ZLB) on the nominal interest rate, when the steady state natural rate (r*) becomes permanently negative. We show that the optimal policy aims to approach gradually a new steady state with positive average inflation. Around that steady state, the optimal policy implies defined (second-best) paths for inflation and output in response to shocks to the natural Under plausible calibrations, the optimal policy...
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作者：Altavilla, Carlo; Guerkaynak, Refet S.; Quaedvlieg, Rogier
作者单位：European Central Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Ihsan Dogramaci Bilkent University; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut
摘要：We establish basic facts about the external finance premium. Tens of millions of individual loan contracts extended to euro area firms allow studying the determinants of the external finance premium at the country, bank, firm, and contract levels of disaggregation. At the country level, the variance in the premium is closely linked to sovereign spreads, which are important in understanding financial amplification mechanisms. However, country level differences only explain half of the total var...
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作者：van Bekkum, Sjoerd; Gabarro, Marc; Irani, Rustom M.; Peydro, Jose-Luis
作者单位：Erasmus University Rotterdam; Erasmus University Rotterdam - Excl Erasmus MC; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Imperial College London
摘要：We analyze the effects of borrower-based macroprudential policy at the household level. We exploit administrative Dutch tax and housing records in conjunction with the introduction of a mortgage loan-to-value (LTV) limit. We find that the regulation sharply reduces mortgage leverage with bunching at the LTV limit. While (regulation) affected households reduce total leverage and interest expenses, they also decrease cash balances to satisfy the LTV limit, generating an important solvency-liquid...
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作者：Drechsel, Thomas; Kim, Seho
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：A large literature has studied optimal regulatory policy in macroeconomic models with asset- based collateral constraints. A common conclusion is that agents 'over-borrow' and optimal policy reduces debt positions through taxes. The reason is that agents do not internalize the effects of their choices on asset prices. . However, recent empirical evidence shows that firms primarily borrow against their earnings rather than their assets. This paper studies optimal macroprudential policy with ear...
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作者：Brianti, Marco; Cormun, Vito
作者单位：University of Alberta; Santa Clara University
摘要：Using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we observe that a large fraction of analysts' expectations about future economic growth is not due to technology or other shocks to fundamentals measured by the business cycle literature. We find that these unexplained changes in forecast revisions predict significant boom-bust dynamics in the key macroeconomic aggregates. We offer a novel theory where boom-bust dynamics stem from expectation shocks orthogonal to fundamentals.
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作者：Santacreu, Ana Maria
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：This is a comment on Optimal Taxation of Multinational Enterprises: A Ramsey Approach, by Sebastian Dyrda, Guangbin Hong, and Joseph B.Steinberg.
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作者：Cavallo, Alberto; Kryvtsov, Oleksiy
作者单位：Harvard University; Bank of Canada
摘要：We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between 2018 and 2024. Measuring unit prices within narrowly defined product categories, we analyze two key sources of variation in prices within a store: temporary price discounts and differences across similar products. Price changes associated with discounts g...
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作者：Ahn, Hie Joo; Xie, Shihan; Yang, Choongryul
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign
摘要：We study the role of homeownership in the effectiveness of monetary policy on households' expectations based on individual-level microdata in the U.S. We find that homeowners lower their near-term inflation expectations and optimism about the labor market outlook in response to a rise in mortgage rates, while renters are less likely to do so. We further show that forward guidance shocks lead to similar differences between homeowners and renters. Our results suggest that homeowners pay attentio...
