-
作者：Ma, Hong; Pan, Yu; Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy)
作者单位：Tsinghua University; Xiamen University; Peking University
摘要：This paper highlights the criminogenic consequence of the remarkable slowdown in China's exports in recent years. By applying textual analysis to millions of judgement documents from all levels of courts in China, we construct measures of crime rates that vary across cities over time. Our estimations, using a shift-share instrumental variable, reveal a higher increase in crime rates in cities that experience a more severe export slowdown. The effects are more pronounced in the manufacturing-sp...
-
作者：Brehm, Paul; Saavedra, Martin
作者单位：University System of Ohio; Oberlin College; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：We estimate the effect of compulsory vaccination court decisions on anti-vaccine discourse and mortality. We measure anti-vaccine discourse using language in American newspapers. Using human-classified training data and machine learning techniques, we predict anti-vaccine discourse for nearly 48,000 newspaper pages. Staggered difference-in-differences estimates show that anti-vaccine discourse increased for a period of two years after pro-vaccine state-level Supreme Court decisions before retu...
-
作者：Calvacanti, Tiago; Hasna, Zeina; Santos, Cezar
作者单位：University of Cambridge; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Getulio Vargas Foundation; International Monetary Fund; University of Cambridge; Inter-American Development Bank; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：We evaluate the aggregate and distributional effects of climate change mitigation policies using a multi-sector equilibrium model with intersectoral input-output linkages and worker heterogeneity, calibrated to various countries. Carbon taxes induce changes in relative prices and input reallocation, notably in labour. In the United States, achieving its Paris Agreement commitment results in, at most, a 0.8% reduction in output, unevenly affecting different sectors and individuals. Some workers...
-
作者：Alvarez-Palau, Eduard J.; Bogart, Dan; Satchell, Max; Shaw-Taylor, Leigh
作者单位：UOC Universitat Oberta de Catalunya; University of California System; University of California Irvine; University of Cambridge
摘要：The Industrial Revolution led to dramatic economic changes that persist to the present. This paper focuses on urban areas in England and Wales, the birthplace of the First Industrial Revolution, and the role of early transport improvements, like improving rivers and roads, building canals and reducing sailing costs. We estimate how much inter-urban freight transport costs declined from all such innovations between 1680 and 1830 using a new multi-modal transport model. We find that relative to ...
-
作者：Gong, Yifan; Skura, Tyler; Stinebrickner, Ralph; Stinebrickner, Todd
作者单位：University of Nebraska System; University of Nebraska Lincoln; Western University (University of Western Ontario)
摘要：Unique data from the Berea Panel Study provide new evidence about fertility outcomes before age thirty and beliefs about these outcomes elicited soon after college graduation. Comparing outcomes and beliefs yields a measure of belief accuracy. Individuals who are unmarried and not in relationships at age twenty-four are extremely optimistic about the probability of having children, while married individuals have very accurate beliefs. Novel attractiveness measures are central for understanding...
-
作者：Jetter, Michael
作者单位：University of Western Australia
摘要：Is humanity's circle of moral concern expanding? I explore frequencies of morally universal language in 15 million book publications in American English, British English, French, Spanish, German and Italian from 1800-2000. In each language, morally universal terminology diminished markedly. This pattern also emerges in Chinese, Russian and Hebrew books. I test two prominent hypotheses predicting moral universalism, pertaining to reason and religiosity. Reason-based terminology indeed correlate...
-
作者：Hanushek, Eric A.; Kinne, Lavinia; Sancassani, Pietro; Woessmann, Ludger
作者单位：Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; IZA Institute Labor Economics; Leibniz Association; DIW Berlin - Deutsches Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Munich
摘要：Decisions to invest in human capital depend on people's time preferences. This paper shows that differences in patience are closely related to substantial subnational differences in educational achievement, leading to new perspectives on long-standing within-country disparities. We use social media data-Facebook interests-to construct novel regional measures of patience within Italy and the United States. The approach is first validated with a cross-country analysis of patience and Facebook in...
-
作者：Knittel, Christopher R.; Stolper, Samuel
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
摘要：We test the ability of causal forests to improve, through selective targeting, the effectiveness of a randomised program providing repeated behavioural nudges towards household energy conservation. The average treatment effect of the program is a monthly electricity reduction of 9 kilowatt hours (kWh), but the full distribution of predicted reductions ranges from roughly 1 to 33 kWh. Pre-treatment electricity consumption and home value are the strongest predictors of differential treatment eff...
-
作者：Kerwin, Jason T.
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：This paper shows that responses to disease risks can be 'fatalistic': higher risk beliefs can lead to more risk-taking rather than less. Intuitively, this can occur because high risk beliefs raise not only the chance of contracting the disease (which raises the marginal cost of risk-taking), but also the perceived chance that you are already infected (which lowers the marginal cost). I test for fatalism by randomly providing information about the true (low) average risk of HIV transmission in ...
-
作者：De Haan, Monique; Schreiner, Ragnhild C.
作者单位：University of Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Oslo
摘要：Exploiting rich administrative data from Norway, we estimate non-parametric bounds around the average causal effect of parental welfare participation on children's welfare participation for children that grew up in welfare-dependent families. We find upper bounds well below the intergenerational association and substantially below existing local average treatment effect estimates in the literature. Our results show that a substantial portion of the observed intergenerational correlation in wel...
