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作者：Park, Junghum
作者单位：Bank of Lithuania; Vilnius University
摘要：This paper analyses overconfident strategic traders whose private information involves correlated errors. The analysis on the effects of two types of overconfidence-overconfidence in own signals and underconfidence in others' signals-provides richer implications than our typical understanding of overconfidence as follows. First, trading volume decreases (increases) with underconfidence in others' signals (overconfidence in own signals). Second, whereas overconfidence in own signals can explain...
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作者：Belot, Michele; Kircher, Philipp; Muller, Paul
作者单位：Cornell University; University of Edinburgh; Universite Catholique Louvain; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute
摘要：In a randomised field experiment, we provide suggestions about suitable occupations to long-term unemployed job seekers. The suggestions are automatically generated, integrated in an online job search platform and fed into actual search queries. Effects on 'reaching a cumulative earnings threshold' and 'finding a stable job' are positive, large and are more pronounced for those who are longer unemployed. Treated individuals include more occupations in their search and find more jobs in recomme...
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作者：Archsmith, James; Heyes, Anthony; Neidell, Matthew; Sampat, Bhaven
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; University of Birmingham; Columbia University; Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：Recent theoretical and empirical work characterises attention as a costly resource that decision-makers allocate strategically. There has been less research on the dynamic interdependence of attention: how paying attention now may affect performance later. In this paper, we exploit high-frequency data on decision-making by Major League Baseball umpires to examine this. We find that umpires apply greater effort to higher-stakes decisions, but also that effort applied to earlier decisions increa...
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作者：Miao, Dingquan; Selin, Hakan; Soderstrom, Martin
作者单位：South China Normal University; Linnaeus University
摘要：We exploit a recent Swedish tax reform, implying higher marginal tax rates for the top 5% of the earnings distribution, to learn about earnings responses to higher taxes. Using a simple and graphical cross-sectional method, we estimate an earnings elasticity of 0.16, evaluated four years after the reform. Our analysis indicates that the response is driven by adjustments in wage rates, and not by changes to hours, job switches or income shifting. We interpret the magnitude and preciseness of th...
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作者：Andersen, Steffen; Brandon, Alec; Gneezy, Uri; List, John A.
作者单位：Copenhagen Business School; Johns Hopkins University; University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We experimentally study the effects of transitory incentives and income predicted by models of reference-dependent labour supply. Visiting an open-air market in India, we induce experimental variation in: (i) incentives by offering vendors a supplemental wage over the course of two days and (ii) income by, one morning, administering a substantial overpayment for a good sold in the market. We find that incentives have a staggered effect on hours worked: initially vendors do not respond, but by ...
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作者：Orchard, Jacob D.; Ramey, Valerie A.; Wieland, Johannes F.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Stanford University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of California System; University of California San Diego
摘要：Macroeconomics has increasingly adopted tools from the applied micro 'credibility revolution' to estimate micro parameters that can inform macro questions. In this paper, we argue that researchers should take advantage of this confluence of micro and macro to take the credibility revolution one step further. We argue that researchers should assess the plausibility of the micro estimates and macro models by constructing macro counterfactuals for historical periods and comparing these counterfac...
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作者：Dillon, Brian; Aker, Jenny C.; Blumenstock, Joshua E.
作者单位：Cornell University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
摘要：We study the impact of a low-cost intervention to reduce information frictions in rural markets by randomly assigning small and medium enterprises in Tanzania to be listed in a telephone directory. The listed firms expand their communication networks, increase sales and make greater use of mobile money, with positive spillovers to firms in the same village. Estimated effects are larger and more statistically precise for firms that are more productive at baseline, consistent with consumers seek...
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作者：Cappelen, Alexander W.; Falch, Ranveig; Huang, Zhongjing; Tungodden, Bertil
作者单位：Norwegian School of Economics (NHH); University of Bergen; East China Normal University; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：In a novel large-scale experiment, we study how adults in two societies, Shanghai (China) and Norway, make real distributive decisions involving children. We find that acceptance of inequality between children increases with the ages of the children, is affected by the source of inequality and the cost of redistribution, and is lower than acceptance of inequality between adults. We document a large cross-societal difference in inequality acceptance: adults in Shanghai implement twice as much i...
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作者：Huillery, Elise; Bouguen, Adrien; Charpentier, Axelle; Algan, Yann; Chevallier, Coralie
作者单位：Santa Clara University; Universite PSL; Universite Paris-Dauphine; Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Universite PSL; Ecole Normale Superieure (ENS); Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (Inserm)
摘要：This article shows that a four-year mindset intervention in disadvantaged middle schools led to a 0.05-standard-deviation increase in grade point average, associated with more optimistic beliefs, more self-criticism and improved school behaviour. Treatment effects were larger in terms of both grade point average and National Exam results for students with relatively better social, academic and discipline profiles. According to international empirical benchmarks, this mindset intervention is hi...
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作者：Lagios, Nicolas; Meon, Pierre-Guillaume; Tojerow, Ilan
作者单位：Universite Libre de Bruxelles
摘要：We study the electoral impact of protesting against the far right by investigating the demonstrations held during the 2002 French presidential elections against far-right candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen. Instrumenting rally attendance with rainfall while factoring in that some municipalities never host protests, we find that larger protests reduced the number of votes for Le Pen and abstention, while increasing the number of votes for the incumbent president, Jacques Chirac. We find that the effec...
