Vaccines and Verdicts: How Smallpox Court Decisions Affect Anti-Vaccine Discourse and Mortality

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Brehm, Paul; Saavedra, Martin
• 署名单位: University System of Ohio; Oberlin College; Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueae118
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 1229-1260
• 关键词: regression-discontinuity; HEALTH; manipulation; BACKLASH; text; LAWS

摘要

We estimate the effect of compulsory vaccination court decisions on anti-vaccine discourse and mortality. We measure anti-vaccine discourse using language in American newspapers. Using human-classified training data and machine learning techniques, we predict anti-vaccine discourse for nearly 48,000 newspaper pages. Staggered difference-in-differences estimates show that anti-vaccine discourse increased for a period of two years after pro-vaccine state-level Supreme Court decisions before returning to baseline. Regression-discontinuity-in-time estimates yield similar findings following the Jacobson v. Massachusetts US Supreme Court decision. While compulsory vaccinations increase anti-vaccine discourse, mandates appear to remain effective, and we estimate that smallpox mortality rates fell in the wake of pro-vaccine decisions.