Fertility Beliefs and Outcomes: the Role of Relationship Status and Attractiveness

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Gong, Yifan; Skura, Tyler; Stinebrickner, Ralph; Stinebrickner, Todd
• 署名单位: University of Nebraska System; University of Nebraska Lincoln; Western University (University of Western Ontario)
• 刊物名称: ECONOMIC JOURNAL
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0013-0133
• DOI: 10.1093/ej/ueae104
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 1410-1431
• 关键词: facial attractiveness; college; expectations; CHILDREN; choices; beauty; marriage; policies; IMPACT

摘要

Unique data from the Berea Panel Study provide new evidence about fertility outcomes before age thirty and beliefs about these outcomes elicited soon after college graduation. Comparing outcomes and beliefs yields a measure of belief accuracy. Individuals who are unmarried and not in relationships at age twenty-four are extremely optimistic about the probability of having children, while married individuals have very accurate beliefs. Novel attractiveness measures are central for understanding fertility beliefs and outcomes for females, but not for males. Marriage is a mechanism that is relevant for understanding differences in beliefs, outcomes and misperceptions across relationship and attractiveness groups.