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作者：Robson, Arthur J.; Szentes, Balazs; Iantchev, Emil
作者单位：Simon Fraser University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Syracuse University
摘要：We consider the evolutionary basis of time discounting with intergen-erational transfers. We show that the notion of reproductive value from biology provides the utility criterion for a parent to optimize the allocation of resources between transfers to offspring and to promote her own survival. This optimization has a natural dynamic programming formulation. We show that younger individuals may well be too impatient, but older individuals too patient in accordance with observations. We compar...
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作者：Vossler, Christian A.; Doyon, Maurice; Rondeau, Daniel
作者单位：University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; University of Tennessee System; University of Tennessee Knoxville; Laval University; University of Victoria
摘要：This paper explores methodological issues surrounding the use of discrete choice experiments to elicit values for public goods. We develop an explicit game theoretic model of individual decisions, providing conditions under which surveys with a single binary choice question, or sequence of binary choice questions, are incentive-compatible. We complement the theory with a framed field experiment, with treatments that span the spectrum from incentive-compatible, financially binding decisions to ...
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作者：Larkin, Ian; Leider, Stephen
作者单位：Harvard University; University of Michigan System; University of Michigan
摘要：We investigate how the convexity of a firm's incentives interacts with worker overconfidence to affect sorting decisions and performance. We demonstrate, experimentally, that overconfident employees are more likely to sort into a nonlinear incentive scheme over a linear one, even though this reduces pay for many subjects and despite the presence of clear feedback. Additionally, the linear scheme attracts demotivated, underconfident workers who perform below their ability. Our findings suggest ...
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作者：Pozzi, Andrea
摘要：This paper compares consumers' brand exploration when shopping online versus in a brick-and-mortar store. I use a new scanner dataset to compare the behavior of households shopping online and in-store at the same chain, for identical items and prices. I find that brand exploration is more prevalent in-store. My model quantifies the role of features of e-commerce, like the existence of favorites lists and the difficulty in verifying item quality. Limited exploration online implies higher barrie...
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作者：Burke, Jeremy M.; Taylor, Curtis R.; Wagman, Liad
作者单位：RAND Corporation; Duke University; Illinois Institute of Technology
摘要：How do price commitments impact the amount of information firms acquire about potential customers? We examine this question in the context of a competitive market where firms search for information that may disqualify applicants. Contracts are incomplete because the amount of information acquired cannot be observed. Despite competition, we find that firms search for too much information in equilibrium. If price discrimination is prohibited, members of high-risk groups suffer disproportionately...
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作者：Anufriev, Mikhail; Hommes, Cars
作者单位：University of Technology Sydney; University of Amsterdam
摘要：In recent learning to forecast experiments (Hommes et al. 2005), three different patterns in aggregate price behavior have been observed: slow monotonic convergence, permanent oscillations, and dampened fluctuations. We show that a simple model of individual learning can explain these different aggregate outcomes within the same experimental setting. The key idea is evolutionary selection among heterogeneous expectation rules, driven by their relative performance. The out-of-sample predictive ...
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作者：Andreoni, James; Mylovanov, Tymofiy
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of Pennsylvania
摘要：People often see the same evidence but draw opposite conclusions, becoming polarized over time. More surprisingly, disagreements persist even when they are commonly known. We derive a model and present an experiment showing that opinions can diverge when one-dimensional opinions are formed from two-dimensional information. When subjects are given sufficient information to reach agreement, however, disagreement persists. Subjects discount information when it is filtered through the actions of o...
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作者：Bhaskar, V.
作者单位：University of London; University College London
摘要：We model the equilibrium sex ratio when parents can choose the sex of their child. With intrinsic son preference, sex selection results in a male-biased sex ratio. This is inefficient due to a marriage market congestion externality. Medical innovations that facilitate selection aggravate the inefficiency. If son preference arises endogenously, due to population growth causing an excess supply of women on the marriage market, selection may improve welfare. Empirically, sex selection causes an e...
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作者：Blonski, Matthias; Ockenfels, Peter; Spagnolo, Giancarlo
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; Goethe University Frankfurt; University of Rome Tor Vergata
摘要：We propose an axiomatic approach for equilibrium selection in the discounted, infinitely repeated symmetric Prisoner's Dilemma. Our axioms characterize a unique selection criterion that is also useful as a tool for applied comparative statics exercises as it results in a critical discount factor delta* strictly larger than (delta) under bar, the standard criterion that has often been used in applications. In an experimental test we find a strong predictive power of our proposed criterion. For ...
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作者：Fudenberg, Drew; Levine, David K.
作者单位：Harvard University; Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：We develop a dual-self model of self-control that is compatible with modern dynamic macroeconomic theory and evidence. We show that a convex cost of self-control explains a wide range of behavioral anomalies concerning risk, including the Allais paradox, and also explains the observed interaction between risk and delay. We calibrate the model to obtain a quantitative fit. We find that most of the data can be explained with subjective interest rates in the range of 1-7 percent, short-run relati...
