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作者：Araujo, Aloisio; Costa, Vitor; Lins, Paulo; Santos, Rafael; De Valk, Serge
作者单位：Getulio Vargas Foundation; Instituto Nacional de Matematica Pura e Aplicada (IMPA); Clemson University
摘要：We propose a model to study an inflation-targeting regime under a high government debt burden. We assume that an altruistic policymaker chooses debt issuance, inflation, and public expenditure, while private agents dislike inflation and finance the government. We show that equilibrium inflation depends on debt level: (i) on-target when debt is low; (ii) above the target when debt is high; (iii) either above or on-target in between, a zone that we named fiscal fragility. Equilibrium inflation a...
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作者：Bernanke, Ben; Blanchard, Olivier
作者单位：Brookings Institution; Peterson Institute for International Economics
摘要：We estimate a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations that allows us to analyze and quantify the sources of recent US inflation. We find that, contrary to early concerns that inflation would be spurred by overheated labor markets, most of the inflation surge resulted from shocks to prices given wages. Although tight labor markets have, thus far, not been the primary driver of inflation, we find that they have a relatively more persistent effect ...
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作者：Cooper, Russell; Ozturk, Ozgen
作者单位：Liaoning University; European University Institute; Bank of England
摘要：This paper studies the dispersion and cyclicality of TFPR. Recent business cycle models assume countercyclical dispersion in TFPQ based on evidence of countercyclical dispersion in TFPR, though TFPR reflects endogenous prices. An overlapping generations model with monopolistic competition and state-dependent pricing is constructed to match three key data patterns: (i) countercyclical dispersion of TFPR, (ii) countercyclical dispersion of price changes, and (iii) countercyclical frequency of pr...
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作者：Balleer, Almut; Duernecker, Georg; Forstner, Susanne; Goensch, Johannes
作者单位：Stockholm University; Goethe University Frankfurt; Goethe University Frankfurt
摘要：We analyze US survey data and document a substantial optimistic bias of households in their expectations about future labor market transitions. We find that low-skilled individuals tend to be strongly overoptimistic, whereas high-skilled individuals have rather precise beliefs. Using a heterogeneous agents life cycle model, we show that the optimistic bias has a quantitatively sizable negative effect on income, consumption, and wealth, implying a substantial loss in individual welfare compared...
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作者：Forni, Mario; Gambetti, Luca; Granese, Antonio; Sala, Luca; Soccorsi, Stefano
作者单位：Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; University of Turin; Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia; Bocconi University; Lancaster University
摘要：We provide a few new empirical facts that theoretical models should feature in order to be consistent with the data. (i) There are two classes of shocks: demand and supply. Supply shocks have long-run effects on economic activity; demand shocks do not. (ii) Both supply and demand shocks are important sources of business cycles' fluctuations. (iii) Supply shocks are the primary driver for consumption fluctuations, demand shocks for investment. (iv) The demand shock is closely related to the cre...
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作者：Smith, Dominic a.; Ocampo, Sergio
作者单位：Western University (University of Western Ontario)
摘要：Increasing national concentration has contributed to market power concerns. Yet local trends are more informative about market power in retail, where consumers have traditionally shopped at nearby stores. Using novel product-level census data for all US retailers, we find that local and national concentration increased in parallel and affect most markets, products, and industries. The expansion of multimarket firms into new markets explains most of the increase in national concentration, with ...
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作者：Kaymak, Baris; Leung, David; Poschke, Markus
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland; National Taiwan University; McGill University
摘要：We assess the empirical relevance of different macroeconomic modeling approaches to wealth concentration, using the joint distribution of earnings, capital income, and net worth in combination with an OLG model of household heterogeneity. We find large earnings disparities to be the primary source of US wealth concentration. This reflects the fact that labor income, from salaries but also from entrepreneurship, is a major income source for top income and wealth groups in the data. Bequests and...
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作者：Kundu, Shohini; Vats, Nishant
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; Washington University (WUSTL)
摘要：This paper investigates the role of banking networks in the transmission of shocks across borders. Combining banking deregulation in the United States with state-level idiosyncratic demand shocks, we show that geographically diversified banks reallocate funds from economies experiencing negative shocks to unaffected regions. Our findings indicate that in the presence of idiosyncratic shocks, financial integration reduces business cycle comovement and synchronizes consumption patterns. Our find...
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作者：Cirelli, Fernando; Gertler, Mark
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Columbia University
摘要：During the pandemic recession, firms directly exposed to the virus- i.e. the contact sector-contracted sharply and recovered slowly relative to the rest of the economy. Less understood is how firms that won by offering safer substitutes for contact sector goods have affected this unequal downturn. Using both firm and industry data, we first construct disaggregated measures of revenue growth that distinguish between contact sector losers, contact sector winners, and the noncontact sector. We sh...
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作者：Liu, Chen
作者单位：National University of Singapore
摘要：I develop a general equilibrium model featuring multidimensional skills and partial specialization in tasks to quantify the impact of several determinants on within-occupation inequality growth from 1980 to 2000. The model introduces a new mechanism by which demand shifts affect inequality: Workers within the same occupation perform multiple and different tasks. I structurally estimate the model using microdata and account for inequality growth due to three sources: changes in occupation deman...
