The Effects of Biased Labor Market Expectations on Consumption, Wealth Inequality, and Welfare

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Balleer, Almut; Duernecker, Georg; Forstner, Susanne; Goensch, Johannes
• 署名单位: Stockholm University; Goethe University Frankfurt; Goethe University Frankfurt
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20220128
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: borrowing constraints; entrepreneurship; experiences; returns

摘要

We analyze US survey data and document a substantial optimistic bias of households in their expectations about future labor market transitions. We find that low-skilled individuals tend to be strongly overoptimistic, whereas high-skilled individuals have rather precise beliefs. Using a heterogeneous agents life cycle model, we show that the optimistic bias has a quantitatively sizable negative effect on income, consumption, and wealth, implying a substantial loss in individual welfare compared to the full information case. Moreover, the skill gradient in the bias leads to pronounced differences in asset accumulation across individuals, making it a quantitatively important driver of wealth inequality. (JEL D15, D31, D83, D84, E21, G51, J24)