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作者：Boerner, Lars; Severgnini, Battista
作者单位：Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg; University of London; King's College London; Leibniz Association; Leibniz Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH); Copenhagen Business School
摘要：This paper investigates the adoption, diffusion, and long-run impact of the public mechanical clock, one of the most important high-technology machines in history, on European economic growth and development. We avoid endogeneity by considering the relationship between the adoption of such clocks and an instrumental variable based on the appearance of repeated solar eclipses. Solar eclipses triggered a medieval cultural movement in which people sought to understand the motion of stars and cloc...
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作者：Acalin, Julien; Ball, Laurence
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Johns Hopkins University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper examines the effects of primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged interest rates before the Fed-Treasury Accord of 1951 on the US public debt/GDP ratio. We find that with the primary budget balance and without distortions in real interest rates caused by surprise inflation and the pre-Accord peg, debt/GDP would have declined only from 106 percent in 1946 to 74 percent in 1974, not to 23 percent as in actual history. Our findings imply that, over the last 76 years, onl...
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作者：Sastry, Karthik A.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：This paper studies why central banks and markets hold different beliefs. I introduce a model that formalizes three mechanisms for disagreement: asymmetric information about fundamentals, different perceptions of the policy rule, and different confidence in public signals. I show how to separately identify these mechanisms using their predictions for beliefs about multiple variables. In US data, negative macroeconomic news predicts market overestimation of interest rates and employment relative...
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作者：Dibiasi, Andreas; Mikosch, Heiner; Sarferaz, Samad
作者单位：Swiss Federal Institutes of Technology Domain; ETH Zurich; Free University of Bozen-Bolzano
摘要：This paper studies the dynamic effects of an uncertainty shock on firm expectations. We conduct a survey that confronts managers from a representative firm sample with a model-consistent uncertainty shock scenario. An exogenous increase in uncertainty significantly reduces managers'expected investment, employment, and production in the short and mid run. We collect novel direct firm-level measures for different types of capital and labor adjustment costs. Adjustment costs vary strongly across ...
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作者：Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Revoltella, Debora; Svejnar, Jan; Weiss, Christoph t.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); IZA Institute Labor Economics; Columbia University; Charles University Prague; Czech Academy of Sciences; Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences
摘要：Using a new survey, we document high dispersion of marginal revenue products across firms in the European Union. To interpret this dispersion, we develop a highly portable framework to quantify gains from better allocation of resources. We demonstrate that apart from direct measures of distortions, firm characteristics, such as demographics, quality of inputs, utilization of resources, and dynamic adjustment of inputs, are predictors of the marginal revenue products of capital and labor. We em...
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作者：Shu, Martin
作者单位：The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen
摘要：Labor productivity growth in the service sector may be mismeasured if workers with heterogeneous skills self-select into sectors. I document with US data that workers reallocated from manufacturing earn more than incumbent workers in professional services but less than incumbent workers in education, health, and public services. A generalized quantitative Roy model predicts a selection effect on labor productivity growth in professional services that is 10 percentage points higher than what a ...
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作者：Faia, Ester; Salomao, Juliana; Veghazy, Alexia Ventula
作者单位：Goethe University Frankfurt; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; European Central Bank
摘要：We estimate euro-dollar yields differences, hedged and unhedged, with euro area confidential corporate bond holdings data. We find that euro yields significantly decline relative to dollar yields-more for securities in the portfolios of investors that prefer euro securities and securities eligible for the European Central Bank asset purchase programs. We then test and uncover a negative relation between the estimated yields differentials and purchases at the aggregate and firm level-stronger f...
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作者：Matthes, Christian; Schwartzman, Felipe
作者单位：University of Notre Dame; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We measure the impact of household consumption shocks on aggregate fluctuations. These shocks affect household consumption directly, and production and prices indirectly through their impact on aggregate consumption. We show how to identify such shocks using prior knowledge of their differential impact across sectoral variables. Shocks independently affecting household consumption demand have accounted for around 40 percent of business cycle fluctuations since the mid-1970s, playing a central ...
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作者：Li, Wenhao
作者单位：University of Southern California
摘要：This paper studies the equilibrium effect of public liquidity on financial crises. Banks borrow from households via insured deposits and partially runnable debt and suffer endogenous funding withdrawals from households in crises. Holding public liquidity alleviates banks' liquidity problems. In equilibrium, a larger public liquidity supply reduces crisis severity and expands bank lending but crowds bank deposits and increases bank vulnerability to real shocks. The model quantitatively explains...
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作者：Adamopoulos, Tasso
作者单位：York University - Canada
摘要：I study the effects of Ethiopia's 1997-2014 road expansion program on agricultural productivity and structural change by combining a quantitative spatial sectoral framework with novel district-level panel data on agricultural production and geocoded transport costs. In the model, the spatial heterogeneity of transport costs affects the distribution of production and mobile inputs across locations and sectors, and the allocation of land across crops within locations. Varying transport costs to ...
