-
作者：Feenstra, Robert C.; Macedoni, Luca; Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy )
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Milan; Peking University
摘要：We examine the relationship between large firms and the rising profit share in a model that features oligopolistic competition and consumer heterogeneity. Conditional on the sales distribution, consumer heterogeneity increases firm-level markups and the profit share. Using NielsenIQ data on purchases at the household-barcode level, we quantify the role of consumer heterogeneity, finding that the average markup and the profit share are 20 and 6.4 percentage points larger than predicted by a rep...
-
作者：Graham, James; McDowall, Robert A.
作者单位：University of Sydney; Australian National University
摘要：We study consumption spending responses to predictable income using household-level data from a US financial institution. Even for households with large liquid asset balances, we find no spending in anticipation of income receipt, substantial spending following receipt, and significant front-loading with respect to date of receipt. To rationalize these findings, we develop a tractable model of mental accounts where consumption choices are partitioned across current income and current assets. O...
-
作者：Dunn, Abe; Gholizadeh, Mahsa
摘要：We estimate across-county spending flows between firms and consumers for every county in the United States, providing a new consumption link that has not been studied previously. We highlight the importance of this link by estimating the effect of changes in local housing wealth on consumption and employment from 2001 to 2019. We generally find that the effect from changes in housing wealth crosses borders to affect consumption and employment in a pattern consistent with our spending flows. Ho...
-
作者：Phillot, Maxime
作者单位：University of Lausanne
摘要：We identify Treasury supply shocks using auction data, interpreting changes in futures prices around announcements as shocks to expected supply. We isolate the component of futures price variations pertaining to US Treasury announcements between 1998 and 2020. We study how supply affects financial markets through local projections, using shocks as instruments. We show that increases in Treasury supply cause an upward shift of the yield curve fueled partly by a higher term premium. Stock prices...
-
作者：Nakajima, Makoto; Telyukova, Irina A.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia
摘要：Many US households have significant wealth late in life, contrary to the predictions of a simple life-cycle model. By comparison, retirees in Sweden decumulate wealth more quickly while facing smaller out-of-pocket medical expense risks late in life. In this paper, we investigate how well the latter can account for the former using a full life-cycle consumption-saving model. We find that medical expense level and risk account for 32-59 percent of the US-Sweden difference in retirees' speed of ...
-
作者：Moschini, Emily G.; Raveendranathan, Gajendran; Xu, Ming
作者单位：McMaster University; Queens University - Canada
摘要：In the United States, college dropout risk is sizable. We provide new empirical evidence that beliefs about the likelihood of earning a bachelor's degree predict college enrollment, and that the distribution of these beliefs exhibits widespread optimism. We incorporate this distribution of beliefs into an overlapping generations model with college as a risky investment that can be financed via federal loans, grants, family transfers, or earnings. We then examine the welfare impact of access to...
-
作者：Gornemann, Nils; Quintana, Pablo A. Guerron; Saffie, Felipe
作者单位：Boston College; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Two-thirds of the real exchange rate's (RER's) volatility occurs at low frequencies. We provide empirical evidence that links movements in the RER to changes in research and development spending and patents. A two-country real business cycle model with endogenous productivity and a gradual dissemination of ideas can rationalize these facts. Endogenous productivity alters RER dynamics by inducing (i) a persistent gap in productivity between countries and (ii) a reallocation of resources toward ...
-
作者：Espino, Emilio; Kozlowski, Julian; Martin, Fernando M.; Sanchez, Juan M.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis
摘要：A model with two essential elements-sovereign default and distortionary fiscal and monetary policies-explains the interaction between sovereign debt, default risk, and inflation in emerging countries. We derive conditions under which monetary policy is actively used to support fiscal policy and characterize the intertemporal trade-offs that determine the choice of debt. We show that in response to adverse shocks to the terms of trade or productivity, governments reduce debt and deficits and in...
-
作者：Lieb, Lenard; Jassem, Adam; Almeida, Rui jorge; Bastuerk, Nalan; Smeekes, Stephan
作者单位：Maastricht University
摘要：Economic agents react to signals about future tax policy changes. Consequently, estimating their macroeconomic effects requires identification of such signals. We propose a novel text analytic approach for transforming textual information into an economically meaningful time series. Using this method, we create a tax news measure from all publicly available postwar communications of US presidents. Our measure predicts the direction and size of future tax changes and contains signals not presen...
-
作者：Lerch, Benjamin
作者单位：Universita della Svizzera Italiana
摘要：I investigate how the introduction of industrial robots is shaping the demographic composition of the US labor force between 1993 and 2014. I find that robots decreased employment of men and women by 3.7 and 1.6 percentage points, contributing to the secular decline in the gender employment gap, and that they decreased employment among Whites and non-Whites by 1.8 and 4.5 percentage points, widening the race/ethnicity employment gap. These effects follow from the persistent occupational segreg...
