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作者：Doh, Taeyoung; Song, Dongho; Yang, Shu-Kuei
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Kansas City; Johns Hopkins University
摘要：We propose a text-based measure of monetary policy stance that models FOMC statements as convex combinations of dovish and hawkish alternatives, providing a tractable representation of the Committee's position along the policy spectrum. Leveraging staff-drafted alternative statements, we fine-tune a pretrained language model to capture both quantitative precision and semantic tone. Stance is defined as the product of tone and novelty, and decomposed into expected and surprise components using ...
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作者：Kaiser, Rosemary
作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
摘要：Employment protections often create two-tiered labor markets with substantial differences in job security. I estimate the effects of removing these protections using a quantitative life cycle model, where younger workers are more likely to select into precarious jobs. Workers accumulate human capital when employed and face the possibility of human capital losses in unemployment. Because workers with greater job security experience fewer unemployment spells, they tend to accumulate more human c...
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作者：Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel; Schwartzman, Felipe
作者单位：University of Chicago; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：In the United States, cognitive nonroutine (CNR) occupations are disproportionately and increasingly represented in large cities. To study the allocation of workers across cities, we propose a quantitative spatial equilibrium model with multiple industries employing CNR and non-CNR workers. Productivity is city-industry-occupation specific and, as we estimate, partly determined by externalities that depend on local occupation shares and total employment. An optimal policy that benefits workers...
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作者：Roldan, Francisco
作者单位：International Monetary Fund
摘要：I examine the role of households' precautionary savings motive in amplifying and propagating movements in sovereign spreads. I study this mechanism in a model where the government of a small open economy borrows from foreigners, but the debt is then partially held by heterogeneous domestic savers. In a calibration to Spain in the 2000s, I find that default risk accounts for about half of the output contraction. More generally, sovereign risk exacerbates volatility in consumption over time and ...
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作者：Jappelli, Tullio; Pistaferri, Luigi
作者单位：University of Naples Federico II; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We test the key implication of the buffer-stock model, namely that any revision in permanent income leads to a proportionate revision in target wealth. We use panel data on the amount of wealth that people think they must hold for precautionary purposes. Using the covariance restrictions that the model imposes on the joint behavior of income and target wealth, we find that households indeed revise, approximately one for one, their target wealth in response to permanent income shocks. The speed...
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作者：Ifergane, Tomer
作者单位：Tel Aviv University; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：Insuring households against unemployment risk is a cornerstone of modern economic policy. Many countries provide unemployment insurance partly by employment protection mandates, most commonly using termination notice mandates. Unlike unemployment insurance benefits, termination notices can stimulate search effort by the unemployed. I formalize this idea using a calibrated heterogeneous agents model, show how termination notice alters the incentives of firms and workers, and study the insurance...
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作者：Macaulay, Alistair
作者单位：University of Surrey
摘要：I explore the business-cycle implications of household inattention to savings product choices. In a model with heterogeneous banks, savers pay more attention to their bank choice when the marginal utility of income is high. Consistent with this, in data from the United Kingdom retail savings market, I find savers more reliably choose products closer to the top of the available interest rate distribution during contractions. Countercyclical attention amplifies shocks to consumption: after contr...
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作者：Sims, Christopher A.
作者单位：Princeton University
摘要：When government debt pays a lower return than private assets, the reasoning in Friedman's (1969) essay on the optimal quantity of money suggests that it would be optimal to expand the debt until its return matched that on private assets. When the only other source of revenue is a distorting tax, however, this is not generally true. In a perfect foresight model, a benevolent government that can make credible commitments chooses a large gap in returns initially and high distorting taxation in th...
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作者：Jia, Ruixue; Ma, Xiao; Xie, Victoria wenxin
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen); Peking University; Santa Clara University
摘要：Using county-level and zip-code-level data from the United States during the period 1998-2018, we document: (i) Increased flood risk has a large negative impact on firm entry, employment, and output in the long run; (ii) Flood events reduce output in the short run while impact on firm entry and employment is limited. We then develop a quantitative spatial model to characterize how flood risk shapes firms' location choices and employment. We find flood risk reduced US aggregate output by 0.53 p...
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作者：Greaney, Brian
作者单位：University of Washington; University of Washington Seattle
摘要：Hsieh and Moretti (2019) find that relaxing land use regulations in three productive US cities would increase GDP by 3.7 percent. In this comment, I revisit their findings. I first attempt to replicate their result and find that their counterfactual would lower output. I document errors in their code that explain this discrepancy. I next show that the results of their model depend on the arbitrary choice of population unit. I propose a modification to their model that eliminates unit dependenc...
