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作者：Jo, YooN Joo; Zubairy, Sarah
作者单位：Texas A&M University System; Texas A&M University College Station; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：In a New Keynesian model with downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR), we show that government spending is more effective in stimulating output in a low-inflation recession relative to a high-inflation recession. The government spending multiplier is large when DNWR binds, but the nature of recession matters due to the opposing response of inflation and, consequently, for real wages. Using US historical time series data, we provide evidence of larger spending multipliers in low-inflation recessi...
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作者：Akyapi, Berkay; Bellon, Matthieu; Massetti, Emanuele
作者单位：State University System of Florida; University of Florida; International Monetary Fund
摘要：The literature studying the macroeconomics of weather has focused on temperature and precipitation annual averages, while micro studies have focused more on extreme weather measures. We construct hundreds of variables from high-frequency, high-spatial-resolution weather measurements. Using the LASSO, we identify the parsimonious subset of variables that can best explain GDP and key macrofiscal variables. We find that scarcer mild temperatures and an increase in the occurrence of high temperatu...
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作者：Macaluso, Claudia
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：Local skill remoteness captures the dissimilarity between the skill profiles of a worker's last job and other jobs in a local labor market. Higher skill remoteness at layoff is associated with persistently lower earnings after layoff, a higher probability of changing occupation, a lower probability of being reemployed at jobs with similar skill profiles, and a higher propensity to migrate. Jobs destroyed in recessions are also more skill remote than those lost in booms. The local skill remoten...
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作者：Mongey, Simon; Violante, Giovanni L.
作者单位：Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Princeton University; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：We merge QCEW and JOLTS microdata to study firm recruiting intensity across establishments and over time. We show that large heterogeneity in vacancy-filling rates is fully accounted for by differences in gross hiring rates. We develop a theory consistent with these facts and, guided by it, construct a firm-based measure of Aggregate Recruiting Intensity (ARI). ARI is strongly procyclical, driven mainly by declines in recruiting efforts in slack labor markets. We also propose a simple proxy AR...
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作者：Bekaert, Geert; Engstrom, Eric; Ermolov, Andrey
作者单位：Columbia University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve System Board of Governors; Fordham University
摘要：We estimate the time-varying distribution of aggregate supply (AS) and aggregate demand (AD) shocks. We distinguish between traditional Gaussian uncertainty and bad uncertainty, associated with negative skewness. The Great Moderation is driven by a reduction in the volatility of AS shocks and the Gaussian component of AD shocks. The increased role of bad demand uncertainty implies that the conditional skewness of GDP growth and inflation has decreased over time. The correlation between AS/AD s...
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作者：Eeckhout, Jan; Hedtrich, Christoph; Pinheiro, Roberto
作者单位：ICREA; Pompeu Fabra University; Centre de Recerca en Economia Internacional (CREI); University of Edinburgh; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：We show that differential IT investment across cities has been a key driver of job and wage polarization since the 1990s. Using a novel dataset, we establish two stylized facts: IT investment is highest in firms in large and expensive cities, and the decline in routine cognitive occupations is most prevalent in large and expensive cities. We propose and estimate a model and find that the fall in IT prices helps explain the wage gap between routine and nonroutine cognitive jobs, as well as the ...
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作者：Li, Xiaoming; Liu, Zheng; Peng, Yuchao; Xu, Zhiwei
作者单位：University of International Business & Economics; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - San Francisco; Central University of Finance & Economics; Fudan University
摘要：Using confidential loan-level data, we examine how Basel III influenced the responses of bank risk-taking to monetary policy shocks in China. We use a difference-in-differences (DID) approach, exploiting disparities in lending behavior between high-and low-risk bank branches before and after the new regulations. Our findings reveal a novel risk-weighting channel through which monetary policy easing significantly reduced bank risk-taking. However, this risk reduction was achieved by shifting le...
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作者：Evans, George W.; Gibbs, Christopher G.; Mcgough, Bruce
作者单位：University of Oregon; University of St Andrews; University of Sydney
摘要：We propose a model of boundedly rational and heterogeneous expectations that unifies adaptive learning, k-level reasoning, and replicator dynamics. Level-0 forecasts evolve over time via adaptive learning. Agents revise over time their depth of reasoning in response to forecast errors, observed and counterfactual. The unified model makes sharp predictions for when and how quickly markets converge in Learning-to-Forecast Experiments, including novel predictions for individual and market behavio...
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作者：Toews, Gerhard; Vezina, Pierre-louis
作者单位：New Economic School; University of London; King's College London
摘要：The Soviet regime forcedly sent millions of enemies of the people, i.e. the educated elite considered a threat to the regime, to Gulag camps across the USSR. We use this large-scale episode of terror as a natural experiment to provide evidence on the long-run persistence of human capital across generations and its effect on economic growth. We combine archive data from the Gulag with the 2018 Russian firm census to show that areas around camps with a larger share of enemies among camp prisoner...
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作者：Das, Mitali; Gopinath, Gita; Hall, Helene; Kim, Taehoon; Stein, Jeremy c.
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We explore how foreign central banks behave when firms engage in currency mismatch, borrowing heavily in dollars. A central bank can deal with risky private-sector mismatch in two ways: (i) with financial regulation or (ii) by accumulating reserves to better serve as a dollar lender of last resort. We highlight a novel externality: Individual central banks may overaccumulate dollar reserves, as this exacerbates a global scarcity of dollar-denominated assets, lowering dollar interest rates and ...
