Expecting Floods: Firm Entry, Employment, and Aggregate Implications

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Jia, Ruixue; Ma, Xiao; Xie, Victoria wenxin
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California San Diego; Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School (PKU Shenzhen); Peking University; Santa Clara University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.20230356
• 发表日期: 2026
• 关键词: economic-growth; CLIMATE-CHANGE; cost; temperature; INNOVATION; gravity; IMPACT; TRADE

摘要

Using county-level and zip-code-level data from the United States during the period 1998-2018, we document: (i) Increased flood risk has a large negative impact on firm entry, employment, and output in the long run; (ii) Flood events reduce output in the short run while impact on firm entry and employment is limited. We then develop a quantitative spatial model to characterize how flood risk shapes firms' location choices and employment. We find flood risk reduced US aggregate output by 0.53 percent in 2018, 23 percent of which stemmed from direct damages and 77 percent from long-run adjustments of firms and workers. (JEL D22, E23, E24, L11, Q54, R23, R32)