New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Chari, V. V.; Kehoe, Patrick J.; McGrattan, Ellen R.
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.1.1.242
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 242-266
• 关键词: monetary-policy; inflation; prices

摘要

Macroeconomists have largely converged on method, model design, reduced-form shocks, and principles of policy advice. Our main disagreements today are about implementing the methodology. Some think New Keynesian models are ready to be used for quarter-to-quarter quantitative policy advice. We do not. Focusing on the state-of-the-art version of these models, we argue that some of its shocks and other features are not structural or consistent with microeconomic evidence. Since an accurate structural model is essential to reliably evaluate the effects of policies, we conclude that New Keynesian models are not yet useful for policy analysis. (JEL E12, E60)