The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Elsby, Michael W. L.; Michaels, Ryan; Solon, Gary
• 署名单位: University of Michigan System; University of Michigan; Michigan State University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.1.1.84
• 发表日期: 2009
• 页码: 84-110
• 关键词: labor-market; gross flows; duration; DYNAMICS; rates; wages

摘要

A dominant trend in recent modeling of labor market fluctuations is to treat unemployment inflows as acyclical. This trend has been encouraged by recent influential papers that stress the role of longer unemployment spells, rather than more unemployment spells, in accounting for recessionary unemployment. After reviewing an empirical literature going back several decades, we apply a convenient log change decomposition to Current Population Survey data to characterize rising unemployment in each postwar recession. We conclude that a complete understanding of cyclical unemployment requires an explanation of countercyclical inflow rates, especially for job losers (layoffs), as well as procyclical outflow rates. (JEL E24, E32)