Blunt Instruments: Avoiding Common Pitfalls in Identifying the Causes of Economic Growth

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Bazzi, Samuel; Clemens, Michael A.
• 署名单位: University of California System; University of California San Diego
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.5.2.152
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 152-186
• 关键词: panel-data; monte-carlo; gmm; TRADE; moments; matter; income; tests; specification; determinants

摘要

Concern has intensified in recent years that many instrumental variables used in widely-cited growth regressions may be invalid, weak, or both. Attempts to remedy this general problem remain inadequate. We show how a range of published studies can offer more evidence that their results are not spurious. Key steps include: grounding growth regressions in more generalized theoretical models, deployment of new methods for estimating sensitivity to violations of exclusion restrictions, opening the black box of GMM with supportive evidence of instrument strength, and utilization of weak-instrument robust tests and estimators. (JEL C52, E23, F35, O41, O47)