Business Volatility, Job Destruction, and Unemployment

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Davis, Steven J.; Faberman, R. Jason; Haltiwanger, John; Jarmin, Ron; Miranda, Javier
• 署名单位: University of Chicago; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Philadelphia; University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.2.2.259
• 发表日期: 2010
• 页码: 259-287
• 关键词: monetary-policy; UNITED-STATES; fluctuations; EMPLOYMENT; aggregate; DYNAMICS; creation; IMPACT; macro

摘要

Unemployment inflows fell from 4 percent of employment per month in the early 1980s to 2 percent by the mid 1990s. Using low frequency movements in. industry-level data, we estimate that a 1 percentage point drop in the quarterly job destruction rate lowers the monthly unemployment inflow rate by 0.28 points. By our estimates, declines in job destruction intensity account for 28 (55) percent of the fall in unemployment inflows from 1982 (1990) to 2005. Slower job destruction accounts for similar fractions of long-term declines in the rate of unemployment.