Input and Output Inventory Dynamics

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Wen, Yi
• 署名单位: Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - St. Louis; Tsinghua University
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.3.4.181
• 发表日期: 2011
• 页码: 181-212
• 关键词: stockout-avoidance; business-cycle; BEHAVIOR; volatility; sales; MODEL; US

摘要

This paper develops an analytically tractable general equilibrium model of inventory dynamics based on a precautionary stockout-avoidance motive. The model's predictions are broadly consistent with the US business cycle and key features of inventory behavior. It is also shown that technological improvement of inventory management can increase, rather than decrease, the volatility of aggregate output. Key to this seemingly counterintuitive result is that a stockout-avoidance motive leads to a procyclical shadow value of inventories, which acts as an automatic stabilizer that discourages sales in booms and encourages demand in recessions, thereby reducing the variability of GDP. (JEL D92, E22, E23, E32, G31)