A Pitfall with Estimated DSGE-Based Government Spending Multipliers

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Feve, Patrick; Matheron, Julien; Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume
• 署名单位: European Central Bank; Bank of France
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7707
• DOI: 10.1257/mac.5.4.141
• 发表日期: 2013
• 页码: 141-178
• 关键词: fiscal-policy; business-cycle; private consumption; MODEL; equilibrium; TECHNOLOGY; purchases; frictions; shocks; output

摘要

This paper examines issues related to the estimation of the government spending multiplier (GSM) in a DSGE context. We stress a source of bias in the GSM arising from the combination of endogenous government expenditures and Edgeworth complementarity between private consumption and government expenditures. Due to cross-equation restrictions, omitting the endogenous component of government policy at the estimation stage would lead an econometrician to underestimate the degree of Edgeworth complementarity and, consequently, the long-run GSM. An estimated version of our model with US postwar data shows that this bias matters quantitatively. The results are robust to a number of perturbations.