American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

最新文章

• Do Value-Added Taxes Affect International Trade Flows? Evidence from 30 Years of Tax Reforms AI翻译
  作者：Benzarti, Youssef; Tazhitdinova, Alisa
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Santa Barbara; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：This paper uses all value-added tax (VAT) changes across EU Member States from 1988 to 2016 to estimate the effect of VATs on trade flows. We find small elasticities of trade flows with respect to VATs, even when VAT changes are large. These elasticities are substantially smaller than the elasticities of trade flows with respect to tariffs estimated in the trade literature. This finding holds across different time periods, countries, and types of reforms. Our results imply that VATs are unlike...
• Deterring Illegal Entry: Migrant Sanctions and Recidivism in Border Apprehensions AI翻译
  作者：Bazzi, Samuel; Hanson, Gordon; John, Sarah; Roberts, Bryan; Whitley, John
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University
  摘要：During the 2008 to 2012 period, the US Border Patrol enacted new sanctions on migrants apprehended while attempting to enter the United States illegally. Using administrative records on apprehensions of Mexican nationals that include fingerprint-based IDs and other details, we detect if an apprehended migrant is subject to penalties and if he is later reapprehended. Exploiting plausibly random variation in the rollout of sanctions, we estimate econometrically that exposure to penalties reduced...
• Do School Spending Cuts Matter? Evidence from the Great Recession AI翻译
  作者：Jackson, C. Kirabo; Wigger, Cora; Xiong, Heyu
  作者单位：Northwestern University; University System of Ohio; Case Western Reserve University
  摘要：During the Great Recession, national public school per-pupil spending fell by roughly 7 percent and persisted beyond the recovery. The impact of such large and sustained education funding cuts is not well understood. To examine this, first, we document that the recessionary drop in spending coincided with the end of decades-long national growth in both test scores and college-going. Next, we show that this stalled educational progress was particularly pronounced in states that experienced larg...
• Urban Water Disinfection and Mortality Decline in Lower-Income Countries AI翻译
  作者：Bhalotra, Sonia R.; Diaz-Cayeros, Alberto; Miller, Grant; Miranda, Alfonso; Venkataramani, Atheendar S.
  作者单位：University of Warwick; Stanford University; Stanford University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centro de Investigacion y Docencia Economicas A.C. (CIDE); University of Pennsylvania
  摘要：Historically , improvements in municipal water quality led to substantial mortality decline in today's wealthy countries. However , water disinfection has not consistently produced large benefits in lower-income countries. We study this issue by analyzing a large-scale municipal water disinfection program in Mexico that increased water chlorination coverage in urban areas from 58 percent to over 90 percent within 18 months. We estimate that the program reduced childhood diarrheal disease morta...
• Fiscal Transfers in the Spatial Economy AI翻译
  作者：Henkel, Marcel; Seidel, Tobias; Suedekum, Jens
  作者单位：University of Bern; University of Duisburg Essen; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Heinrich Heine University Dusseldorf
  摘要：Many countries shift substantial public resources across jurisdictions to mitigate spatial economic disparities. We use a general equilibrium model with multiple asymmetric regions, labor mobility, and costly trade to carve out the aggregate implications of fiscal transfers. Calibrating the model for Germany, we find that transfers indeed deliver smaller disparities across regions. This comes at the cost of lower national output, however, because economic activity is diverted away from core ci...
• The Effect of SNAP on the Composition of Purchased Foods: Evidence and Implications AI翻译
  作者：Hastings, Justine; Kessler, Ryan; Shapiro, Jesse M.
  作者单位：Brown University; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：We use detailed data from a large retail panel to study the effect of participation in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) on the composition and nutrient content of foods purchased for at-home consumption. We find that the effect of SNAP participation is small relative to the cross-sectional variation in most of the outcomes we consider. Estimates from a model relating the composition of a household's food purchases to the household's current level of food spending imply that...
• Racial Divisions and Criminal Justice: Evidence from Southern State Courts AI翻译
  作者：Feigenberg, Benjamin; Miller, Conrad
  作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital; University of California System; University of California Berkeley; National Bureau of Economic Research
  摘要：The US criminal justice system is exceptionally punitive. We test whether racial heterogeneity is one cause, exploiting cross-jurisdiction variation in punishment severity in four Southern states. We estimate the causal effect of jurisdiction on arrest outcomes using a fixed effects model that incorporates extensive charge and defendant controls. We validate our estimates using defendants charged in multiple jurisdictions. Consistent with a model of ingroup bias in electorate preferences, the ...
• Unemployment Insurance Taxes and Labor Demand: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Administrative Data AI翻译
  作者：Johnston, Andrew C.
  作者单位：University of California System; University of California Merced
  摘要：To finance unemployment insurance, states raise payroll tax rates on employers who engage in layoffs. Tax rates are, therefore, highest for firms after downturns, potentially hampering labor-market recovery. Using full-population, administrative records from Florida, I estimate the effect of these tax increases on firm behavior leveraging a regression kink design in the tax schedule. Tax hikes reduce hiring and employment substantially, with no effect on layoffs or wages. The results imply una...
• The Rise of Working Mothers and the 1975 Earned income Tax Credit AI翻译
  作者：Bastian, Jacob
  作者单位：Rutgers University System; Rutgers University New Brunswick
  摘要：The rise of working mothers radically changed the US economy and the role of women in society. In one of the first studies of the 1975 introduction of the Earned Income Tax Credit, I find that this program increased maternal employment by 6 percent, representing 1 million mothers and an elasticity of 0.58. The EITC may help explain why the US has long had such a high fraction of working mothers despite few childcare subsidies or parental leave policies. I also find suggestive evidence that thi...
• Do Credit Market Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Quasi-experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and Normal Economic Times AI翻译
  作者：Greenstone, Michael; Mas, Alexandre; Hoai-Luu Nguyen
  作者单位：University of Chicago; Princeton University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
  摘要：Using comprehensive data on bank lending and establishment-level outcomes from 1997-2010, this paper finds that small business lending is an unimportant determinant of small business and overall economic activity. A shift-share style research design is implemented to predict county-level lending shocks using variation in preexisting bank market shares and bank supply shifts. Counties with negative predicted lending shocks experienced declines in small business loan originations, indicating tha...