Do Credit Market Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Quasi-experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and Normal Economic Times

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Greenstone, Michael; Mas, Alexandre; Hoai-Luu Nguyen
• 署名单位: University of Chicago; Princeton University; University of California System; University of California Berkeley
• 刊物名称: AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-ECONOMIC POLICY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 1945-7731
• DOI: 10.1257/pol.20160005
• 发表日期: 2020
• 页码: 200-225
• 关键词: employment; decline; CRISIS; banks; jobs

摘要

Using comprehensive data on bank lending and establishment-level outcomes from 1997-2010, this paper finds that small business lending is an unimportant determinant of small business and overall economic activity. A shift-share style research design is implemented to predict county-level lending shocks using variation in preexisting bank market shares and bank supply shifts. Counties with negative predicted lending shocks experienced declines in small business loan originations, indicating that it is costly to switch lenders. However, small business loan originations have an economically insignificant and generally statistically insignificant impact on both small firm and overall employment during the Great Recession and normal times.