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作者：Calderon, Alvaro; Fouka, Vasiliki; Tabellini, Marco
作者单位：Stanford University; Stanford University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Harvard University; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：Between 1940 and 1970, more than 4 million African Americans moved from the South to the North of the US, during the Second Great Migration. This same period witnessed the struggle and eventual success of the civil rights movement in ending institutionalized racial discrimination. This article shows that the Great Migration and support for civil rights are causally linked. Predicting Black inflows with a shift-share instrument, we find that the Great Migration raised support for the Democratic...
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作者：Bernard, Benjamin
作者单位：University of Wisconsin System; University of Wisconsin Madison
摘要：This paper studies two-player games in continuous time with imperfect public monitoring, in which information may arrive both gradually and continuously, governed by a Brownian motion, and abruptly and discontinuously, according to Poisson processes. For this general class of two-player games, we characterize the equilibrium payoff set via a convergent sequence of differential equations. The differential equations characterize the optimal trade-off between value burnt through incentives relate...
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作者：Preonas, Louis
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park
摘要：Economists have widely endorsed pricing CO2 emissions to internalize climate change-related externalities. Doing so would significantly affect coal, the most carbon-intensive energy source. However, U.S. coal markets exhibit an additional distortion: the railroads that transport coal to power plants can exert market power. This article estimates how coal-by-rail markups respond to changes in coal demand. I identify markups in a major intermediate goods market using both reduced-form and struct...
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作者：Liu, Qingmin; Wong, Yu Fu
作者单位：Columbia University; University of Warwick
摘要：This paper analyses a model of strategic exploration in which competing players independently explore a set of alternatives. The model features a multiple-player multiple-armed bandit problem and captures a strategic trade-off between pre-emption-covert exploration of alternatives that the opponent will explore in the future-and prioritization-exploration of the most promising alternatives. Our results explain how the strategic trade-off shapes equilibrium behaviours and outcomes, for example,...
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作者：Caramp, Nicolas; Singh, Sanjay R.
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis
摘要：Safe asset shortages can expose an economy to liquidity traps. The nature of these traps is determined by the cyclicality of the bond premium. A counter-cyclical bond premium opens the possibility of expectations-driven liquidity traps in which small issuances of government debt crowd out private debt and reduce output. In contrast, when the bond premium is pro-cyclical and the economy is in a liquidity trap, government debt is expansionary. In the data, we find evidence of a counter-cyclical ...
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作者：Iovino, Luigi; Sergeyev, Dmitriy
作者单位：Bocconi University
摘要：We study the effects of central bank balance sheet policies-namely, quantitative easing and foreign exchange interventions-in a model where people form expectations through an iterative level-k thinking process. We emphasize two main theoretical results. First, under a broad set of conditions, central bank interventions are effective under level-k thinking, while they are neutral in the rational expectations equilibrium. Second, when preferences exhibit constant relative risk aversion, asset p...
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作者：Pycia, Marek; Yenmez, M. Bumin
作者单位：University of Zurich; Boston College
摘要：We incorporate externalities into the stable matching theory of two-sided markets. Extending the classical substitutes condition to markets with externalities, we establish that stable matchings exist when agent choices satisfy substitutability. We show that substitutability is a necessary condition for the existence of a stable matching in a maximal-domain sense and provide a characterization of substitutable choice functions. In addition, we extend the standard insights of matching theory, l...
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作者：Broadbent, Ben; Di Pace, Federico; Drechsel, Thomas; Harrison, Richard; Tenreyro, Silvana
作者单位：Bank of England; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：The U.K. economy experienced significant macroeconomic adjustments following the 2016 referendum on its withdrawal from the European Union. To understand these adjustments, this paper presents empirical facts using novel U.K. macroeconomic data and estimates a small open economy model with tradable and non-tradable sectors. We demonstrate that the referendum outcome can be interpreted as news about a future decline in productivity growth in the tradable sector. An immediate fall in the relativ...
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作者：Banerjee, Abhijit; Breza, Emily; Chandrasekhar, Arun G.; Duflo, Esther; Jackson, Matthew O.; Kinnan, Cynthia
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; Stanford University; Universite PSL; College de France; The Santa Fe Institute; Tufts University
摘要：We show that the entry of formal financial institutions can have far-reaching and long-lasting impacts on informal lending and social networks more generally. We first study the introduction of microfinance in 75 villages in Karnataka, India, 43 of which were exposed to microfinance. Using difference-in-differences, we show that networks shrank more in exposed villages. Moreover, links between households that were both unlikely to borrow from microfinance were at least as likely to disappear a...
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作者：Rambachan, Ashesh; Roth, Jonathan
作者单位：Microsoft; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Brown University
摘要：This paper proposes tools for robust inference in difference-in-differences and event-study designs where the parallel trends assumption may be violated. Instead of requiring that parallel trends holds exactly, we impose restrictions on how different the post-treatment violations of parallel trends can be from the pre-treatment differences in trends (pre-trends). The causal parameter of interest is partially identified under these restrictions. We introduce two approaches that guarantee unifor...
