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作者：Hassan, Tarek A.; Schreger, Jesse; Schwedeler, Markus; Tahoun, Ahmed
作者单位：Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); Columbia University; University of London; London Business School
摘要：We use textual analysis of earnings conference calls held by listed firms around the world to measure the amount of risk managers and investors at each firm associated with each country at each point in time. Flexibly aggregating this firm-country-quarter-level data allows us to systematically identify spikes in perceived country risk (crises) and document their source and pattern of transmission to foreign firms. While this pattern usually follows a gravity structure, it often changes dramati...
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作者：Bacchetta, Philippe; van Wincoop, Eric; Young, Eric R.
作者单位：University of Lausanne; Swiss Finance Institute (SFI); Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Virginia; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Cleveland
摘要：We introduce a portfolio friction in a two-country DSGE model where investors face a constant probability to make new portfolio decisions. The friction leads to a more gradual portfolio adjustment to shocks and a weaker portfolio response to changes in expected excess returns. We apply the model to monthly data for the US and the rest of the world for equity portfolios. We show that the model is consistent with a broad set of evidence related to portfolios, equity prices, and excess returns fo...
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作者：Imas, Alex; Madarasz, Kristof
作者单位：University of Chicago; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
摘要：We propose that a person's desire to consume an object or possess an attribute increases in how much others want but cannot have it. We term this motive imitative superiority-seeking and show that it generates preferences for exclusion that help explain a host of market anomalies and make novel predictions in a variety of domains. In bilateral exchange, trade becomes more zero-sum, leading to an endowment effect. People's value of consuming a good increases in its scarcity, which generates a m...
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作者：Cloyne, James; Dimsdale, Nicholas; Postel-Vinay, Natacha
作者单位：University of California System; University of California Davis; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Oxford; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
摘要：The impact of fiscal policy on economic activity is still a matter of great debate. And, ever since Keynes first commented on it, interwar Britain, 1918-39, has remained a particularly interesting and contentious case-not least because of its high-debt environment and turbulent business cycle. This debate has often focused on the effects of government spending, but little is known about the effects of tax changes. In fact, a number of tax reforms in the period focused on long-term and social o...
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作者：Barczyk, Daniel; Fahle, Sean; Kredler, Matthias
作者单位：McGill University; Eberhard Karls University of Tubingen; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid
摘要：How do housing and family shape the savings, spending, and inter-generational transfer behaviour of the elderly? Using the Health and Retirement Study, we document that inter-generational transfers to children are substantially backloaded, that homeowners dis-save much more slowly than renters but often sell their houses when entering a nursing home, and that care by children slows down nursing home entry and is linked to larger bequests, particularly of housing. To rationalise these facts, we...
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作者：Tabord-Meehan, Max
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：This paper proposes an adaptive randomisation procedure for two-stage randomised controlled trials. The method uses data from a first-wave experiment in order to determine how to stratify in a second wave of the experiment, where the objective is to minimise the variance of an estimator for the average treatment effect. We consider selection from a class of stratified randomisation procedures which we call stratification trees: these are procedures whose strata can be represented as decision t...
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作者：Bursztyn, Leonardo; Rao, Aakaash; Roth, Christopher; Yanagizawa-Drott, David
作者单位：University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; Harvard University; University of Cologne; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of Zurich
摘要：The rise of opinion programs has transformed television news. Because they present anchors' subjective commentary and analysis, opinion programs often convey conflicting narratives about reality. We experimentally document that people across the ideological spectrum turn to opinion programs over straight news, even when provided large incentives to learn objective facts. We then examine the consequences of diverging narratives between opinion programs in a high-stakes setting: the early stages...
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作者：Lagerborg, Andresa; Pappa, Evi; Ravn, Morten O.
作者单位：International Monetary Fund; Universidad Carlos III de Madrid; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; University of London; University College London
摘要：We estimate the dynamic causal effects of consumer sentiment shocks in the US. We identify autonomous changes in survey evidence on consumer confidence using fatalities in mass shootings as an instrument. We find the instrument to be significant for an aggregate index of consumer expectations and also back up the identification scheme with micro evidence that exploits the geographical variation in mass shootings. Sentiment shocks have real macroeconomic effects. A negative sentiment shock is r...
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作者：Bornstein, Gideon; Krusell, Per; Rebelo, Sergio
作者单位：University of Pennsylvania; National Bureau of Economic Research; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Northwestern University
摘要：We use new, comprehensive micro data on oil fields to build and estimate a structural model of the oil industry embedded in a general equilibrium model of the world economy. In the model, firms that belong to Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) act as a cartel. The remaining firms are a competitive fringe. We use the model to study the macroeconomic impact of the advent of fracking. Fracking weakens the OPEC cartel, leading to a large long-run decline in oil prices. Fracki...
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作者：Nekoei, Arash; Seim, David
作者单位：Stockholm University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Stockholm University; Uppsala University
摘要：This article aims to measure and understand the role of inheritances in shaping wealth inequality. We use a quasi-experimental design and Swedish administrative data to document that the average heir depletes her inheritance within a decade while the inheritances of wealthy heirs remain intact. These different depletion rates are not due to different consumption or labour supply responses but due to different rates of return on inherited wealth. Upon their receipt, inheritances reduce relative...
