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作者：Jiang, Zhengyang; Krishnamurthy, Arvind; Lustig, Hanno
作者单位：Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University
摘要：We develop a model of the global financial cycle with one key ingredient: the international demand for safe dollar assets. The model matches patterns of dollar borrowing and currency mismatch, the U.S. external balance sheet, exorbitant privilege, spillovers of the U.S. monetary policy to the rest of the world, and the dollar as a global risk factor. In doing so, we lay out a novel transmission mechanism through which the U.S. monetary policy affects the currency market and the global economy....
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作者：Luz, Vitor Farinha; Gottardi, Piero; Moreira, Humberto
作者单位：University of British Columbia; University of Essex; Universita Ca Foscari Venezia
摘要：This paper studies a competitive model of insurance markets in which consumers are privately informed about their risk and risk preferences. We provide a characterization of the equilibria, which depend non-trivially on consumers' type distribution, a desirable feature for policy analysis. The use of consumer characteristics for risk classification is modeled as the disclosure of a public informative signal. A novel property of signals, monotonicity, is shown to be necessary and sufficient for...
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作者：Strulov-Shlain, Avner
作者单位：University of Chicago
摘要：Firms arguably price at ninety-nine-ending prices because of left-digit bias-the tendency of consumers to perceive a $4.99 as much lower than a $5.00. Analysis of retail scanner data on 3500 products sold by twenty-five U.S. chains provides robust support for this explanation. I structurally estimate the magnitude of left-digit bias and find that consumers respond to a one-cent increase from a ninety-nine-ending price as if it were more than a twenty-cent increase. Next, I solve a portable mod...
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作者：Anderson, Simon; Baik, Alicia; Larson, Nathan
作者单位：University of Virginia; American University
摘要：We study list price competition when firms can individually target consumer discounts (at a cost) afterwards, and we address recent privacy regulation (like the GDPR) allowing consumers to choose whether to opt-in to targeting. Targeted consumers receive poaching and retention discount offers. Equilibrium discount offers are in mixed strategies, but only two firms vie for each contested consumer and final profits on them are Bertrand-like. When targeting is unrestricted, firm list pricing rese...
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作者：DYRDA, S. E. B. A. S. T. I. A. N.; PEDRONI, M. A. R. C. E. L. O.
作者单位：University of Toronto; University of Amsterdam
摘要：We study optimal fiscal policy in a standard incomplete-markets model with uninsurable idiosyncratic income risk, where a Ramsey planner chooses time-varying paths of proportional capital and labour income taxes, lump-sum transfers (or taxes), and government debt. We find that (1) short-run capital income taxes are effective in providing redistribution since the tax base is relatively unequal and inelastic; (2) an increasing pattern of labour income taxes over time mitigates intertemporal dist...
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作者：Borella, Margherita; De Nardi, Mariacristina; Yang, Fang
作者单位：University of Turin; University of Minnesota System; University of Minnesota Twin Cities; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Minneapolis; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; National Bureau of Economic Research; Louisiana State University System; Louisiana State University
摘要：In the US, both taxes and old-age social security benefits depend on one's marital status and tend to reduce the labour supply of the secondary earner. To what extent are these provisions holding back the female labour supply? We estimate a rich dynamic life-cycle model of labour supply and savings for couples and singles using the Method of Simulated Moments for the 1945 and 1955 birth cohorts. Our model matches well the life-cycle profiles of labour market participation, hours, and savings f...
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作者：Egan, Mark; MacKay, Alexander; Yang, Hanbin
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We use a revealed-preference approach to estimate investor expectations of stock market returns. Using data on demand for index funds that followthe S&P 500, we develop and estimate a model of investor choice to flexibly recover the time-varying distribution of expected future returns across investors. Our analysis is facilitated by the prevalence of leveraged funds that track the same underlying asset: by choosing between higher and lower leverage, investors trade off higher return against le...
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作者：Bethune, Zachary; Sultanum, Bruno; Trachter, Nicholas
作者单位：University of Virginia; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - Richmond
摘要：We build a theory of financial intermediation based on the premise that some investors are better able to figure out the trade motives of their counterparties in bilateral meetings-screening experts. We solve for the equilibrium market structure and study how information asymmetries stemming from heterogeneity in screening expertise shape up the core-periphery trade structure. In particular, the core of the market is populated by screening experts: they have the largest share of trade volume, ...
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作者：Di Tella, Sebastian; Hall, Robert
作者单位：Stanford University; Stanford University; Stanford University
摘要：We develop a simple flexible-price model of business cycles driven by spikes in risk premiums. Aggregate shocks increase firms' uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and raise risk premiums. We show that risk shocks can create quantitatively plausible recessions, with contractions in employment, consumption, and investment. Business cycles are inefficient-output, employment, and consumption fall too much during recessions, compared to the constrained-efficient allocation. Optimal policy involves stim...
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作者：Halac, Marina; Yared, Pierre
作者单位：Yale University; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; Columbia University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：We study rules based on instruments versus targets. Our application is a New Keynesian economy where the central bank has non-contractible information about aggregate demand shocks and cannot commit to policy. Incentives are provided to the central bank via punishment which is socially costly. Instrument-based rules condition incentives on the central bank's observable choice of policy, whereas target-based rules condition incentives on the outcomes of policy, such as inflation, which depend o...
