The Brexit Vote, Productivity Growth, and Macroeconomic Adjustments in the UK

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Broadbent, Ben; Di Pace, Federico; Drechsel, Thomas; Harrison, Richard; Tenreyro, Silvana
• 署名单位: Bank of England; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science
• 刊物名称: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0034-6527
• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdad086
• 发表日期: 2023
• 页码: 2104-2134
• 关键词: real business cycles; economic-impact; exchange-rates; news; TRADE; INVESTMENT; prices; imbalances; COSTS

摘要

The U.K. economy experienced significant macroeconomic adjustments following the 2016 referendum on its withdrawal from the European Union. To understand these adjustments, this paper presents empirical facts using novel U.K. macroeconomic data and estimates a small open economy model with tradable and non-tradable sectors. We demonstrate that the referendum outcome can be interpreted as news about a future decline in productivity growth in the tradable sector. An immediate fall in the relative price of non-tradable goods induces a temporary sweet spot for tradable producers. Economic activity in the tradable sector expands in the short run, while the non-tradable sector contracts. Aggregate output, consumption, and investment growth decelerate.