Lives Versus Livelihoods: The Impact of the Great Recession on Mortality and Welfare*

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Finkelstein, Amy; Notowidigdo, Matthew J.; Schilbach, Frank; Zhang, Jonathan
• 署名单位: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; Duke University
• 刊物名称: QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0033-5533
• DOI: 10.1093/qje/qjaf023
• 发表日期: 2025
• 页码: 2269-2328
• 关键词: air-pollution; UNITED-STATES; job displacement; HEALTH; LIFE; income; rates; care; consumption; INEQUALITY

摘要

We leverage spatial variation in the severity of the Great Recession across the United States to examine its impact on mortality and explore the quantitative implications. We estimate that an increase in the unemployment rate of the magnitude of the Great Recession reduces the average annual age-adjusted mortality rate by 2.3%, with effects persisting for at least 10 years. Mortality reductions appear across causes of death and are concentrated in the half of the population with a high school degree or less. We estimate similar percentage reductions in mortality at all ages, with declines in elderly mortality thus responsible for about three-quarters of the total mortality reduction. Recession-induced mortality declines are driven primarily by external effects of reduced aggregate economic activity on mortality, and reduced air pollution appears to be a quantitatively important mechanism. Incorporating our estimates of procyclical mortality into a standard macroeconomic framework substantially reduces the welfare costs of recessions, particularly for people with less education, and at older ages.