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作者：Ljungqvist, Lars; Uhlig, Harald
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics; New York University; University of Chicago
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作者：Herranz, Neus; Krasa, Stefan; Villamil, Anne P.
作者单位：University of Illinois System; University of Illinois Chicago; University of Illinois Chicago Hospital; University of Iowa
摘要：How do entrepreneurs vary firm size, capital structure, and default to manage risk? We show that more risk-averse entrepreneurs run smaller, more highly leveraged firms and default less, because running a smaller firm with higher debt reduces personal funds at risk in the firm. Optimal default depends on ex ante debt, consumption forgone from firm liquidation, and owner capacity to inject funds. We show that entrepreneurs sacrifice current consumption in the hope of future success that never m...
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作者：Hosseini, Roozbeh
作者单位：Arizona State University; Arizona State University-Tempe
摘要：I study the role of social security in providing insurance when there is adverse selection in the annuity market. I calculate welfare gain from mandatory annuitization in the social security system relative to a laissez-faire benchmark, using a model in which individuals have private information about their mortality. I estimate large heterogeneity in mortality using the Health and Retirement Study. Despite that, I find small welfare gain from mandatory annuitization. Social security has a lar...
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作者：Apesteguia, Jose; Ballester, Miguel A.
作者单位：ICREA; Pompeu Fabra University; Autonomous University of Barcelona
摘要：Evidence showing that individual behavior often deviates from the classical principle of preference maximization has raised at least two important questions: (1) How serious are the deviations? (2) What is the best way to analyze choice behavior in order to extract information for the purpose of welfare analysis? This paper addresses these questions by proposing a new way to identify the preference relation that is closest, in terms of welfare loss, to the revealed choice.
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作者：Toda, Alexis Akira; Walsh, Kieran
作者单位：University of California System; University of California San Diego; University of Virginia
摘要：We provide evidence suggesting that the cross-sectional distributions of US consumption and its growth rate obey the power law in both the upper and lower tails, with exponents approximately equal to four. Consequently, high-order moments are unlikely to exist, and the generalized method of moments estimation of Euler equations that employs cross-sectional moments may be inconsistent. Through bootstrap studies, we find that the power law appears to generate spurious non-rejection of heterogene...
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作者：Frydman, Carola; Hilt, Eric; Zhou, Lily Y.
作者单位：Boston University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Federal Reserve System - USA; Federal Reserve Bank - New York
摘要：We study the effects of a contraction in financial intermediation on nonfinancial firms. The Panic of 1907 originated in the shadow banks of the time, New York's trust companies. The runs were caused by a shock unrelated to the trust companies' nonfinancial corporate clients. In the years following the panic, corporations affiliated with the worst-affected trusts made fewer capital investments, paid lower dividends, and suffered lower profitability and higher borrowing costs relative to firms ...
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作者：Al-Najjar, Nabil I.; Shmaya, Eran
作者单位：Northwestern University; Tel Aviv University
摘要：Leading equilibrium concepts require agents' beliefs to coincide with the model's true probabilities and thus be free of systematic errors. This implicitly assumes a criterion that tests beliefs against the observed outcomes generated by the model. We formalize this requirement in stationary environments. We show that there is a tension between requiring that beliefs can be tested against systematic errors and allowing agents to disagree or be uncertain about the long-run fundamentals. We disc...
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作者：Acemoglu, Daron; Egorov, Georgy; Sonin, Konstantin
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); Northwestern University; HSE University (National Research University Higher School of Economics)
摘要：We provide a general framework for the analysis of institutional dynamics in an environment in which payoffs and political powers change stochastically. Assuming that economic and political institutions as well as individual types can be ordered, and preferences and the distribution of political power satisfy natural single-crossing (increasing differences) conditions, we prove existence of a pure-strategy Markov voting equilibrium, provide conditions for its uniqueness, and present a number o...
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作者：Antras, Pol; Foley, C. Fritz
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：This paper theoretically and empirically analyzes the financing terms that support international trade. The choice of trade finance terms balances the risk that an importer defaults on an exporter and the possibility that an exporter does not deliver goods as specified. Analysis of transaction-level data from a US exporter reveals that importers located in countries with weak enforcement of contracts typically finance transactions, but these firms are able to overcome the constraints of such e...
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作者：Krusell, Per; Smith, Anthony A., Jr.
作者单位：University of Gothenburg; National Bureau of Economic Research; Yale University
