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作者：Andries, Marianne; Haddad, Valentin
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; University of California System; University of California Los Angeles; National Bureau of Economic Research
摘要：Information aversion-a preference-based fear of news flows-has rich implications for decisions involving information and risk-taking. It can explain key empirical patterns on how households pay attention to savings, namely, that investors observe their portfolios infrequently, particularly when stock prices are low or volatile. Receiving state-dependent alerts following sharp market downturns, such as during the financial crisis of 2008, improves welfare. Information-averse investors display a...
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作者：Sweeting, Andrew; Roberts, James W.; Gedge, Chris
作者单位：University System of Maryland; University of Maryland College Park; National Bureau of Economic Research; Duke University
摘要：We develop a dynamic limit pricing model where an incumbent repeatedly signals information relevant to a potential entrant's expected profitability. The model is tractable, with a unique equilibrium under refinement, and dynamics contribute to large equilibrium price changes. We show that the model can explain why incumbent airlines cut prices dramatically on routes threatened with entry by Southwest, presenting new reduced-form evidence and a calibration that predicts a pattern of price chang...
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作者：Pastor, Lubos; Veronesi, Pietro
作者单位：Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; National Bank of Slovakia; University of Chicago; National Bureau of Economic Research; University of Chicago; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We develop a model of political cycles driven by time-varying risk aversion. Agents choose to work in the public or private sector and to vote Democratic or Republican. In equilibrium, when risk aversion is high, agents elect Democrats-the party promising more redistribution. The model predicts higher average stock market returns under Democratic presidencies, explaining the well-known presidential puzzle. The model can also explain why economic growth has been faster under Democratic presiden...
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作者：Gronqvist, Hans; Nilsson, J. Peter; Robling, Per-Olof
作者单位：Uppsala University; Stockholm University
摘要：We study the impact of lead exposure from birth to adulthood and provide evidence on the mechanisms producing these effects. Following 800,000 children differentially exposed to the phaseout of leaded gasoline in Sweden, we find that even a low exposure affects long-run outcomes, that boys are more affected, and that changes in noncognitive skills explain a sizeable share of the impact on crime and human capital. The effects are greater above exposure thresholds still relevant for the general ...
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作者：Caballero, Ricardo J.; Simsek, Alp
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：We develop a model of gross capital flows and analyze their role in global financial stability. In our model, consistent with the data, when a country experiences asset fire sales, foreign investments exit (fickleness), while domestic investments abroad return home (retrenchment). When countries have symmetric expected returns and financial development, the benefits of retrenchment dominate the costs of fickleness and gross flows increase fire-sale prices. Fickleness, however, creates a coordi...
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作者：Kogan, Leonid; Papanikolaou, Dimitris; Stoffman, Noah
作者单位：Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); National Bureau of Economic Research; Northwestern University; Indiana University System; IU Kelley School of Business; Indiana University Bloomington
摘要：We develop a general equilibrium model of asset prices in which benefits of technological innovation are distributed asymmetrically. Financial market participants do not capture all economic gains from innovation even when they own shares in innovating firms. Such gains accrue partly to the innovators, who cannot sell claims on proceeds from their future ideas. We show how the resulting inequality among agents can give rise to a high risk premium on the aggregate stock market, return comovemen...
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作者：Fort, Margherita; Ichino, Andrea; Zanella, Giulio
作者单位：University of Bologna; Leibniz Association; Ifo Institut; University of Bologna; European University Institute; University of Adelaide; University of Bologna; IZA Institute Labor Economics
摘要：Exploiting admission thresholds to the Bologna day care system, we show using a regression discontinuity (RD) design that one additional day care month at age 0-2 reduces intelligence quotient by 0.5% (4.7% of a standard deviation) at age 8-14 in a relatively affluent population. The magnitude of this negative effect increases with family income. Similar negative impacts are found for personality traits. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis from psychology that children in day car...
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作者：Doyle, Orla
作者单位：University College Dublin
摘要：Using a randomized experiment, this study investigates the impact of sustained investment in parenting, from pregnancy until age 5, in the context of extensive welfare provision. Providing the Preparing for Life program, incorporating home visiting, group parenting, and baby massage, to disadvantaged Irish families raised children's cognitive and socioemotional/behavioral scores by two-thirds and one-quarter of a standard deviation, respectively. There were few differential effects by gender a...
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作者：Maggiori, Matteo; Neiman, Brent; Schreger, Jesse
作者单位：Harvard University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR); University of Chicago; Columbia University
摘要：We establish currency as an important factor shaping global portfolios. Using a new security-level data set, we demonstrate that investor holdings are biased toward their own currencies to such an extent that countries typically hold most of the foreign-debt securities denominated in their currency. While large firms issue in foreign currency and borrow from foreigners, most firms issue only in local currency and do not directly access foreign capital. These patterns hold broadly across countr...
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作者：Bandiera, Oriana; Prat, Andrea; Hansen, Stephen; Sadun, Raffaella
作者单位：University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Columbia University; Imperial College London; Harvard University
摘要：We develop a new method to measure CEO behavior in large samples via a survey that collects high-frequency, high-dimensional diary data and a machine learning algorithm that estimates behavioral types. Applying this method to 1,114 CEOs in six countries reveals two types: leaders, who do multifunction, high-level meetings, and managers, who do individual meetings with core functions. Firms that hire leaders perform better, and it takes three years for a new CEO to make a difference. Structural...
