The Nature of Long-Term Unemployment: Predictability, Heterogeneity, and Selection

• 成果类型: Article
• 署名作者: Mueller, Andreas I.; Spinnewijn, Johannes
• 署名单位: University of Zurich; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK; IZA Institute Labor Economics; University of London; London School Economics & Political Science; Centre for Economic Policy Research - UK
• 刊物名称: JOURNAL OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
• ISSN/ISSBN: 0022-3808
• DOI: 10.1086/738045
• 发表日期: 2025
• 关键词: DURATION DEPENDENCE; insurance; models; assignment; benefits; search

摘要

This paper studies the predictability of long-term unemployment (LTU) using rich administrative data from Sweden. We establish substantial heterogeneity in LTU risk across individuals, accounting for both observed and unobserved heterogeneity using a wide range of observable predictors and multiple-spell outcomes, respectively. We apply our prediction algorithm to study the dynamics of job finding over the unemployment spell and the business cycle. Selection effects can explain most of the decline in average job finding over the unemployment spell but little of its cyclicality. We also find sizable heterogeneity in the profiles of job finding over the unemployment spell but not over the business cycle.