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作者：Bayer, Christian; Luetticke, Ralph; Lien Pham-Dao; Tjaden, Volker
作者单位：University of Bonn; University of London; University College London; Deutsche Bundesbank
摘要：Households face large income uncertainty that varies substantially over the business cycle. We examine the macroeconomic consequences of these variations in a model with incomplete markets, liquid and illiquid assets, and a nominal rigidity. Heightened uncertainty depresses aggregate demand as households respond by hoarding liquid paper assets for precautionary motives, thereby reducing both illiquid physical investment and consumption demand. We document the empirical response of portfolio li...
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作者：[Anonymous]
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作者：Gruener, Hans Peter; Troeger, Thomas
作者单位：University of Mannheim; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
摘要：How should a society choose between two social alternatives if participation in the decision process is voluntary and costly, and monetary transfers are not feasible? Assuming symmetric independent private values, we show that it is utilitarian-optimal to use a linear voting rule: votes get alternative-dependent weights, and a default obtains if the weighted sum of votes stays below some threshold. Any combination of weights and threshold can be optimal. A standard quorum rule can be optimal o...
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作者：Ray, Debraj; Vohra, Rajiv
作者单位：New York University; University of Warwick; Brown University
摘要：Harsanyi (1974) and Ray and Vohra (2015) extended the stable set of von Neumann and Morgenstern to impose farsighted credibility on coalitional deviations. But the resulting farsighted stable set suffers from a conceptual drawback: while coalitional moves improve on existing outcomes, coalitions might do even better by moving elsewhere. Or other coalitions might intervene to impose their favored moves. We show that every farsighted stable set satisfying some reasonable and easily verifiable pr...
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作者：Chen, Yi-Chun; He, Wei; Li, Jiangtao; Sun, Yeneng
作者单位：National University of Singapore; Chinese University of Hong Kong; Singapore Management University; National University of Singapore
摘要：We consider a general social choice environment that has multiple agents, a finite set of alternatives, independent types, and atomless type distribution. We show that for any Bayesian incentive compatible mechanism, there exists an equivalent deterministic mechanism that (1) is Bayesian incentive compatible; (2) delivers the same interim expected allocation probabilities and the same interim expected utilities for all agents; and (3) delivers the same ex ante expected social surplus. This res...
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作者：Frick, Mira; Iijima, Ryota; Strzalecki, Tomasz
作者单位：Yale University; Harvard University
摘要：We provide an axiomatic analysis of dynamic random utility, characterizing the stochastic choice behavior of agents who solve dynamic decision problems by maximizing some stochastic process (U-t) of utilities. We show first that even when (U-t) is arbitrary, dynamic random utility imposes new testable across-period restrictions on behavior, over and above period-by-period analogs of the static random utility axioms. An important feature of dynamic random utility is that behavior may appear his...
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作者：Hill, Brian
作者单位：Hautes Etudes Commerciales (HEC) Paris; Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
摘要：Many decision situations involve two or more of the following divergences from subjective expected utility: imprecision of beliefs (or ambiguity), imprecision of tastes (or multi-utility), and state dependence of utility. This paper proposes and characterizes a model of uncertainty averse preferences that can simultaneously incorporate all three phenomena. The representation supports a principled separation of (imprecise) beliefs and (potentially state-dependent, imprecise) tastes. Moreover, t...
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作者：Kaido, Hiroaki; Molinari, Francesca; Stoye, Jorg
作者单位：Boston University; Cornell University
摘要：We propose a bootstrap-based calibrated projection procedure to build confidence intervals for single components and for smooth functions of a partially identified parameter vector in moment (in)equality models. The method controls asymptotic coverage uniformly over a large class of data generating processes. The extreme points of the calibrated projection confidence interval are obtained by extremizing the value of the function of interest subject to a proper relaxation of studentized sample ...
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作者：Bastianello, Lorenzo; LiCalzi, Marco
作者单位：Universite Paris-Pantheon-Assas; Universita Ca Foscari Venezia
摘要：We revisit the Nash bargaining model and axiomatize a procedural solution that maximizes the probability of successful bargaining. Our characterization spans several known solution concepts, including the special cases of the Nash, egalitarian, and utilitarian solutions. Using a probability-based language, we offer a natural interpretation for the product operator underlying the Nash solution: when the bargainers' individual acceptance probabilities are independent, their product recovers the ...
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作者：Matsuyama, Kiminori
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：Endogenous demand composition across sectors due to income elasticity differences, or Engel's Law for brevity, affects (i) sectoral compositions in employment and in value-added, (ii) variations in innovation rates and in productivity change across sectors, (iii) intersectoral patterns of trade across countries, and (iv) product cycles from rich to poor countries. Using a two-country model of directed technical change with a continuum of sectors under nonhomothetic preferences, which is rich e...
