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作者：Bazzi, Samuel; Fiszbein, Martin; Gebresilasse, Mesay
作者单位：Boston University; Amherst College
摘要：The presence of a westward-moving frontier of settlement shaped early U.S. history. In 1893, the historian Frederick Jackson Turner famously argued that the American frontier fostered individualism. We investigate the frontier thesis and identify its long-run implications for culture and politics. We track the frontier throughout the 1790-1890 period and construct a novel, county-level measure of total frontier experience (TFE). Historically, frontier locations had distinctive demographics and...
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作者：Kozbur, Damian
作者单位：University of Zurich
摘要：This paper analyzes a procedure called Testing-Based Forward Model Selection (TBFMS) in linear regression problems. This procedure inductively selects covariates that add predictive power into a working statistical model before estimating a final regression. The criterion for deciding which covariate to include next and when to stop including covariates is derived from a profile of traditional statistical hypothesis tests. This paper proves probabilistic bounds, which depend on the quality of ...
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作者：Brandl, Florian; Brandt, Felix
作者单位：Stanford University; Technical University of Munich
摘要：We consider social welfare functions that satisfy Arrow's classic axioms of independence of irrelevant alternatives and Pareto optimality when the outcome space is the convex hull of some finite set of alternatives. Individual and collective preferences are assumed to be continuous and convex, which guarantees the existence of maximal elements and the consistency of choice functions that return these elements, even without insisting on transitivity. We provide characterizations of both the dom...
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作者：Dworczak, Piotr
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：I study a mechanism design problem in which a designer allocates a single good to one of several agents, and the mechanism is followed by an aftermarket-a post-mechanism game played between the agent who acquired the good and third-party market participants. The designer has preferences over final outcomes, but she cannot design the aftermarket. However, she can influence its information structure by publicly disclosing information elicited from the agents by the mechanism. I introduce a class...
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作者：Bisin, Alberto
作者单位：New York University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Center for Economic & Policy Research (CEPR)
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作者：Domeij, David; Ellingsen, Tore
作者单位：Stockholm School of Economics
摘要：Giglio, Maggiori, and Stroebel (2016) show that there is no significant price difference between freeholds and ultra-long leaseholds in the UK housing market. They claim that this finding precludes the presence of large rational bubbles, as these can only attach to the price of freeholds. But the conclusion presumes that leaseholders cannot acquire bubbles through enfranchisement at favorable prices. We find that the presumption is violated. Enfranchisement rights are comprehensive and cheap t...
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作者：Giglio, Stefano; Maggiori, Matteo; Stroebel, Johannes
作者单位：Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research; Stanford University; New York University
摘要：In Giglio, Maggiori, and Stroebel (2016), we propose and implement a new test for classic rational bubbles. Such bubbles derive their value from each agent's rational expectation of being able to resell the bubble claims to the next agent. Backward induction ensures that classic rational bubbles can only exist on infinite-maturity assets. Our empirical exercise shows that infinite-maturity claims and 999-year claims for otherwise identical housing assets trade at the same price, and thus rules...
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作者：Salant, Yuval; Cherry, Josh
作者单位：Northwestern University
摘要：We consider statistical inference in games. Each player obtains a small random sample of other players' actions, uses statistical inference to estimate their actions, and chooses an optimal action based on the estimate. In a sampling equilibrium with statistical inference (SESI), the sample is drawn from the distribution of players' actions based on this process. We characterize the set of SESIs in large two-action games, and compare their predictions to those of Nash equilibrium, and for diff...
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作者：Hartmann, Lorenz
作者单位：University of Freiburg
摘要：Savage (1954) provided the first axiomatic characterization of expected utility without relying on any given probabilities or utilities. It is the most famous preference axiomatization existing. This note shows that Savage's axiom P3 is implied by the other axioms, which reveals its redundancy. It is remarkable that this was not noticed before as Savage's axiomatization has been studied and taught by hundreds of researchers for more than six decades.
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作者：Dubois, Pierre; Saethre, Morten
作者单位：Universite de Toulouse; Universite Toulouse 1 Capitole; Toulouse School of Economics; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH)
摘要：Differences in regulated pharmaceutical prices within the European Economic Area create arbitrage opportunities that pharmacy retailers can access through parallel imports. For prescription drugs under patent, parallel trade affects the sharing of profits among an innovating pharmaceutical company, retailers, and parallel traders. We develop a structural model of demand and supply in which retailers can choose the set of goods to sell, thus foreclosing consumers' access to less profitable drug...
